Donald Trump's serious plan leaked – and this would also affect Hungary

Donald Trump, the Republican candidate for the US presidential elections in November, believed that if he returned to the White House, he would encourage NATO member states to increase their defense spending to 3% of gross domestic product. According to Telegraph information, Trump considers this step justified due to the threats posed by Russia and China, stressing that the member states will thus contribute more to the collective defense of the alliance.

Trump suggested that, too Military aid to Ukraine should not count toward this 3% target. Because without it, many countries would not even be able to reach the current target of 2 percent. A source close to Trump told the newspaper that the former US president had become more stringent in his position after his meeting with Polish President Andrzej Duda.

According to reports, the meetings between Trump and Duda also influenced Trump to reconsider his previous position on a long-awaited $60 billion aid package for Kiev. Trump previously threatened to withdraw US aid to NATO allies who refuse to increase their defense spending.

According to the report, only 11 of NATO's 32 member states, including the UK, last year reached or exceeded defense spending of at least 2% of GDP. Among them is the United States, which played a major role in this matter. On the other hand, Luxembourg, Belgium and Spain spent much less, just 1 and 1.2% of their GDP, respectively, on defence.

It is worth noting that Hungary met the 2% GDP target last year, but at least it was close to it, given the first GDP estimate for 2023.

Duda has previously argued that some countries – such as Poland, the United States and Greece – that have already reached or exceeded this threshold should increase their spending further due to a potential confrontation with Russia. According to Timo Pesonen, a senior EU defense official, some member states are already discussing this possibility behind closed doors.

In the case of the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that his country's defense spending could reach 2.5% of GDP by the end of the decade. This represents a total increase of about 75 billion pounds.

If Donald Trump becomes the winner of this year's presidential election and actually formulates his leaked forecasts toward NATO members, it would mean additional spending of about 1% of Hungary's GDP. At the same time, it is not known in what time frame the Republican politician expects to achieve the new 3% target. However, if this scenario comes true, the Hungarian government will have to raise an additional one hundred billion forints every year in the following years to finance military spending. If you want to keep the GDP ratio at 3%, you will have to spend an additional HUF 900-1,000 billion each year, compared to the current budget path, on a long-term basis, after reaching the target.

Cover photo: Former US President Donald Trump, the unofficial presidential candidate of the Republican Party, speaks to supporters at a campaign rally at Freeland Airport in Michigan on May 1, 2024. The presidential election is scheduled for November 5 in the United States. Source: MTI Images/Nick Hagen