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Previous research calculated that at least a hundred people would need to move to Mars for a base established here to function sustainably in the long term, but according to a new study, even a fraction of that would be enough.
Researchers from George Mason University in the United States have a The study was published in 2020 It got him thinking, as Jean-Marc Salotti tried using mathematical methods to figure out the minimum number of colonists that might be required for a colony established on Mars to be completely self-sufficient. In his study published in Nature, Saloti estimated that at least 110 people would need to be sent to the orb for this, roughly the same as other researchers’ previous findings.
On the other hand, American data scientists chose a different starting point, since, such as Anamaria Berea, A Stady one of my authors said the log, in a place like Mars, it would be unrealistic to expect the colony to function completely independently of Earth. For this reason, the researchers assumed that supplies would regularly arrive at the base, and according to their results, only 22 people would be enough to establish a long-term, sustainable colony.
In this case, the “long run” covers 28 years, during which time the researchers ran what are called agent-based model simulations, which have long been used in the social sciences to predict people’s actions and interactions in a given situation. The agent-based model gives each participant different characteristics, and based on this, the researchers were able to simulate how efficiently and how long colonists can complete each task—getting a number that is the minimum necessary to maintain the colony.
As for why they came to a completely different conclusion from previous research, Beria said they did not take the human factor into account. “We tend to treat people as mere numbers, as components that lack factors such as personal motivation, diversity and adaptability,” said the researcher, adding that human groups, on the other hand, are actually complex systems where “the end result is synergy rather than the sum of the parts.” “.
The registry also asked Salotti what he thought of the results. The Purdue Tech researcher was quick to point out that the two studies did not examine the same problem (Salotti started from the assumption that humanity would have to leave Earth for some reason, so a colony would have to be completely self-supporting), but agreed that if supplies were sent regularly from ground, 22 people or less in this case would be sufficient to maintain the base.
At the same time, it remains questionable when anyone can benefit from such simulations in practice. Even though Elon Musk is still in 2011 He promisedthat the first man will step on Mars within ten years, in this time Even the founder of SpaceX, known for his extremely optimistic predictions, would be satisfied if this happened by the end of the decade, while others – like NASA – clearly put the historic space flight in 2030. By the way, Musk previously calculated that 12 astronauts could reach the celestial body in the mission The first, but in the future, with the help of Starships, they can transport up to a hundred people to the planet, where by the middle of a century, up to a million people can live in a huge glass-domed city.
(Cover image: Getty Images)
