At the beginning of the week, the forint started to rise against the euro, in parallel with how the common European currency also pulled away from the dollar. However, the momentum had run out by Thursday, and although the Hungarian currency had already reached a range below 379, it was above 381 on Friday morning.
Compared to the euro, the forint is close to its 200-day moving average, which is the level of 382.1, and if the Hungarian currency weakens during this level, it may move towards the path of 384.5.
There are two important stats coming out of Hungary: The Central Statistical Office will release detailed data on GDP at 8:30 AM, which will reveal the structural situation of the Hungarian economy and the prospect of emerging from recession in the previous quarter. There is also the question of what trends the markets are reading from the second estimate data for foreign product trade.
In the US, the wage statistics calculated without agricultural workers and unemployment data may be the most interesting, because the Fed gives them the most attention in its interest-rate decisions. The dollar was hit by worse-than-expected macro data published this week, but according to many analysts, the greenback may continue to regain momentum, which could cause the greenback to move closer to the euro, which traditionally pulls the forint lower as well.
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