The University of Michigan US Consumer Confidence Index rose significantly more than analysts expected, to a level not seen since July 2021, in January.
- According to preliminary data presented on Friday, the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index rose to 78.8 points, the highest level since July 2021, from 69.7 points in December. In the average analyst estimates, there was a less improved index, 70.0 points.
- In December and January, the Consumer Confidence Index rose 29%, the largest two-month increase since 1991.
- Among the sub-indices, the consumer expectations index for the next six months rose from 67.4 points in December to 75.9 points, and the sub-index reflecting the current situation improved from 73.3 points to 83.3 points.
- One-year inflation expectations fell from 3.1% to 2.9%, the lowest level since December 2020, and thus no longer exceed the values of 2.3-3.0% in the two years before the pandemic.
- Five-year inflation expectations fell from 2.9% to 2.8%, and the rate remained within the narrow range of 2.9% to 3.1% during 26 of the past 30 months.
- Long-term inflation expectations remain slightly higher compared to the 2.2-2.6 percent recorded in the two years before the pandemic.
- The sentiment index issued by the University of Michigan, along with the Consumer Confidence Index issued by the Economic Research Institute of the Conference Board, is the most important measure of the expected development of consumption, which represents about 70 percent of the US gross domestic product.
- Researchers from the University of Michigan interviewed at least 500 people by phone for the monthly representative survey. Final data will be announced on February 2.
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