According to revised final data from the UK Statistics Office (ONS) presented on Thursday, the value of gross domestic product declined by 0.3 percent in the three months ending in September compared to the second quarter. The first estimates released last month included a 0.2 percent drop in gross domestic product for the third quarter.
It is possible that the British economy is already in recession, according to the latest forecasts of the Bank of England, the British GDP will decline by 0.1% in the current fourth quarter. Based on the generally accepted technical definition, an economy is in recession if the value of GDP has declined in two consecutive quarters.
According to an ONS report on Thursday, the drop in GDP in the third quarter also meant that the value of British GDP at the end of the quarter was 0.8 per cent lower than it was in the fourth quarter of 2019, the last total before the pandemic hit. Coronavirus in Great Britain. a fourth. This is a significant negative revision, as the first estimate provided by the Census Bureau in November stated that the value of gross domestic product was 0.4 percent below the level measured in the fourth quarter of 2019 in the three months to the end of September.
The British government initially ordered a national lockdown at the end of March 2020, and this – along with additional lockdowns subsequently ordered – caused a free fall in the performance of the British economy. For the whole of 2020, the value of Britain’s GDP fell by an average of 11% in real terms, back to the 2013 level, meaning the shock of the coronavirus pandemic wiped out seven years of growth in one year. The drop in GDP in 2020 was unprecedented in the history of the modern British economy.
The general expectations of analysts predict a recession in the British economy next year in the context of inflation, which has not been measured in four decades and is more than 10 percent in a twelve-month comparison, although the expected extent of the decline does not fit. Until closer to the fall of 2020.
In its report yesterday, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which prepares the UK government’s official forecasts and monitors responsible budget policy, predicted that in the next two financial years, the entire increase in real income for the past eight years could be lost to inflation.Cover image: Getty Images
