Infections, deaths, and hospital records
Far fewer new cases were reported this morning compared to the previous days, which will be satisfactory in and of itself, except for nearly every Tuesday. The effect of the weekend is likely to happen on Tuesday, when fewer people go to the doctor, so fewer tests are done. It can also be seen in the figure below that major setbacks are usually followed by a sudden increase – valleys are usually seen on Tuesdays. Unfortunately, on the upside, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a higher number tomorrow than before.
The rapid rise of the epidemic is demonstrated by the fact that the number of new cases increased by more than 1,000 people, or 59%, compared to the previous Tuesday.
The most worrying news today is the number of people receiving care in the hospital, as it is rising sharply. An additional 392 patients were admitted to the hospital compared to the previous day – an even greater increase in the second wave was observed in just 24 hours, even then only once. The number of obsessed people increased by 44 in one day.
In the past 24 hours, we lost 130 of our citizens due to the Coronavirus. Unfortunately, the trend is also rising on the curve of new deaths, and seeing the worsening epidemiological situation, we cannot expect any relief in the coming weeks.
Examinations and vaccinations
The effect of the weekend is also reflected in the number of tests performed. We received 2,764 new cases from only 13,000 test results, and the number of tests performed is far below the average of 23,000 daily samples last week, which is also a classic low on Tuesday. 21% of tests performed were positive – the higher this rate, the less accurate our ability to track spread, more cases may remain undetected. At the height of the second wave, this proportion was around 30% (excluding outliers). As shown in the figure, the trend is rising sharply, we can reach the underdetection rate seen in the second wave in a matter of weeks, and the healthcare system (including testing capabilities) could be under significant stress within days.
Vaccination is ongoing, with 721,677 people vaccinated, of whom 252,847 have already received the second vaccination. This means that in one day, 36,400 people received their first vaccination in Hungary. Vaccination has accelerated amazingly since the purchase of Chinese and Russian vaccines, but it is still low: 7.4% of the population received the first vaccine, and 2.59% received the second vaccine, an increase of only 0.01 percentage points yesterday. As the operative strain shifts to delay the second vaccination, that scissors will open: more and more people will receive the first vaccination, compared to a much slower increase in the proportion of those who receive the second vaccination at the start. The new vaccination plan will be presented at today’s press conference for the active tribe.
In the past 24 hours, the highest number of infections was reported in Budapest, 728. There were 606 new patients in Pest County in the past day, 206 new cases in Kumarom-Estergom, and less than 200 new cases in the other provinces. The lowest number of new infections was in Zala County, only 20 people, but it was also low in Vesperm (29) and Jasz Nagikon Zolnok (26).
In terms of population, the capital was not so bad anymore last week, with 341 patients per 100,000 people. The province most affected is Somogy, with 525 patients per 100,000 population, 491 in Nógrád and 472 in Komárom-Esztergom district. The number of patients in Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok county relative to the population was the lowest, at 84 patients per 100,000 population, and anywhere else in the other counties was no less than 100 last week. Less than 200 were the counties of Veszprem, Paraná, Zala, Heviz and Vieques. The districts of Pest, Fejér and Győr-Moson-Sopron (next to the counties of Nógrád, Komárom-Esztergom and Budapest) were among the most affected, with more than 300 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
Cover photo: Getty Images