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The performance of the British economy fell slightly more than first estimated in the third quarter. The first estimates released last month included a 0.2 percent drop in gross domestic product for the third quarter.
The British economy may already be in recessionAccording to the latest forecasts of the Bank of England, the British GDP will decline by 0.1 percent in the current fourth quarter. Based on the generally accepted technical definition, an economy is in recession if the value of GDP has declined in two consecutive quarters.
the ONS report According to the third quarter, the decline in GDP also means that the value of British GDP at the end of the quarter was 0.8 percent lower than it was in the fourth quarter of last year, i.e. in the last full quarter before the coronavirus pandemic. Great Britain.
This is a significant negative revision, as the first estimate provided by the Census Bureau in November stated that the value of gross domestic product was 0.4 percent below the level measured in the fourth quarter of 2019 in the three months to the end of September.
The UK government initially ordered a national lockdown at the end of March 2020, and this – along with additional lockdowns subsequently ordered – caused a free fall in the performance of the UK economy. For the whole of 2020, the value of Britain’s GDP fell by an average of 11% in real terms, tumbling back to the 2013 level, meaning the shock of the coronavirus pandemic wiped out seven years of growth in one year.
GDP fell 0.3% in the third quarter (July-September 2022), after adjusting down from a 0.2% decline, with:
▪️ Services at 0.1% (adjusted upwards from 0.0%)
▪️ Manufacturing at -2.8% (revised down from -2.3%)
▪️ Construction at -0.2% (rated down from 0.6%)– Office of National Statistics (ONS) (ONS) December 22, 2022
The decline in GDP in 2020 is unprecedented in the history of the British economy
The general expectations of analysts predict a recession in the British economy next year in the context of inflation, which has not been measured in four decades and is more than 10 percent in a twelve-month comparison, although the expected extent of the decline does not fit. Until closer to the fall of 2020.
The Bank of England, in its latest quarterly report on monetary policy, announced that it expects Great Britain to spend the next two years in recession: according to the Bank of England’s forecasts, the performance of the British economy as a whole will decline by 1.5% in 2023 and by 1% in 2024.
This is the longest recession since the performance of the British economy began to be measured using methodology similar to that present in the 1920s.
An organization that prepares official forecasts for the British government and monitors responsible budgeting policy (Budget Responsibility Office) In his report a few days ago, he indicated that in the next two fiscal years, the entire increase in real income for the previous eight years may be lost due to inflation.
