Like icebergs, much of the reality is hidden below the surface, so it’s usually helpful to stand with healthy skepticism for a group of aggregate numbers, but the thermometer rarely lies. Is Lake Balaton freezing up? In our article The data shown in our well published table illustrates the problems of statistical models as well as the difficulties of forecasting the weather. To keep up with what we promised at the time, we examine ourselves what the predictions have come true.
The table was supplemented with additional data, which is the sum of squares. The figure shows how important the differences are. When the number is low, the variance is regularly small, and where it is high, there is regularly greater difference between the expected data and the actual data. In terms of locations, in addition to Budapest, Siófok was chosen because of Lake Balaton, while Nyíregyháza was chosen because the biggest cold is expected in the northeastern regions of the country in the next week. Let’s see the numbers!
Budapest Accuweather found weather in the expected minimum and maximum area based on numbers, metuweather met.hu and koponyeg.hu proved to be the most accurate.
Siofok Weather.com was so wrong last week that it is almost statistically incomprehensible, it is very different from the others, and here too the National Weather Service website met.hu proved to be the most accurate.
Nyiregyhaza In case To his amazement, Accuweather proved to be the most accurate, but closely behind it met.hu hit the actual best temperatures.
Summing up the above, it can be concluded from last week that everything is difficult to check and predict from a distance, including the weather.