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The British economy is on fire: it could enjoy 0.6 per cent growth

The British economy is on fire: it could enjoy 0.6 per cent growth

According to the first estimate provided by the UK's Office of Statistics (ONS) on Friday, British GDP rose 0.6 percent in the first three months of 2024 compared to the previous quarter, MTI reported. Analysts expected an average growth of 0.4 percent in the first quarter of this year.

The UK economy and growth seem to have found each other again
Image: Portfolio Advisor

British GDP fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter of last year and by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, so Great Britain – the largest European economy outside the European Union – ended last year in a technical recession.

According to the agreed upon definition, a recession occurs when GDP declines in two consecutive quarters. This was the first recession for the British economy since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, although the extent of the decline in the two periods cannot be compared: in the first year of the pandemic, in 2020, British GDP fell by 10.4 percent – an unprecedented rate in the history of the British economy. the talk. At the same time, preliminary estimates of growth in the first quarter presented by the British Statistics Office on Friday officially confirm the views recently expressed by many experts, including Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, according to which last year's British recession is a non-starter. is expected. more. The latest activity data also indicated this.

In its announcement on Friday accompanying the preliminary GDP growth estimate for the first quarter, the British Statistics Office highlighted that the performance of the British economy rose by 0.3 percent in January, 0.2 percent in February, and 0.4 percent in March, on a monthly basis. . The February figure was revised upwards by the Office for National Statistics, with previous estimates indicating a monthly increase of 0.1 per cent for the second month of this year. The statistical office confirms that in the first quarter of this year, the per capita GDP, calculated in real terms, increased by 0.4 percent, after seven consecutive quarters of no growth.

GDP per capita, even with the increase in the first quarter, is 0.7 percent below the level measured in the same quarter last year, according to the first estimate provided by the Office for National Statistics on Friday.

The PMI is also high

According to a survey conducted by global financial and economic data providers S&P and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS), a measure of UK business purchasing activity (CIPS), the seasonally adjusted Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (BMI) and the British manufacturing and services sector index reached 54.1 in April after 52.8 in March. The composite body mass index last month was the highest since last April. BMI indices above 50 indicate a recovery in activity of the sectors analyzed, that is, the April composite data of 54.1 indicates a strong and accelerating growth in the performance of the British business sector.

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