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It is estimated that the number of foreign workers who have returned to the mainland from the United Kingdom in the last year ranges between 900,000 and 1.3 million. In many ways this is a major blow to the already troubled British economy due to the pandemic.
Foreign workers are leaving the UK at an unprecedented rate since World War II – Writes And Bloomberg. The population of London alone has decreased by 700,000, according to recent surveys, which are squeezing home renters and budget tax revenues at a time when they will be most needed due to the economic crisis. There is a high risk that these people, who mainly worked in closed restaurants and stores, will not return after the restrictions are lifted, so their shortages will always be. Will the brakes Economic growth – Jonathan Burts, an economics professor at Kings College London, complains, who said a total of 1 million guest workers could leave the island nation within a year.
Rents in London are down 8.3 per cent, according to data from the trade portal Zoople, although this is not necessarily to blame immigrants, as many have recently arrived from abroad to rent mainly private homes.
This year’s budget will certainly reflect that companies and the state treasury can expect fewer guest workers to work and pay their taxes, while the pandemic has weighed on both companies and the state. Certainly, the situation that developed from emigration abroad will also change the government’s immigration policy. Over the past decade, efforts have been made to reduce the number of migrants who arrive by more than 100,000 per year, but with little success. Now the British leadership has to worry that due to the aging of the local population, there will be no one to work in the country.
Dangerous scenarios
Several scenarios have been developed to predict the latter situation. According to one of them, if immigration is completely wiped out – unlike a hundred thousand previous arrivals – then after five years, Britain’s GDP could suffer a one percent increase in growth due to a shortage of guest workers. This could lead to an increase in the annual budget deficit of 0.7% of GDP.
In the short term, there is no problem yet, because unemployment is high due to the Coronavirus crisis, and part of the economy, especially hospitality, may remain under restrictions for some time to come. However, when these things are done, the immigration system introduced after Brexit will pose serious obstacles, particularly to the influx of people doing low-skilled jobs. These people will not obtain long-term work visas.
Alarm numbers
Indeed, it is not possible to estimate exactly how many have left the country. According to official labor statistics, the number of migrant workers decreased by 900,000 to 8.3 million by the third quarter of 2020. A blog linked to the Government-funded Economic Statistics Center of Excellence saw an estimate of 1.3 per cent, as the population of nearly nine million Lundon could shrink. By eight percent.
Hospitality and retail may have taken a particularly heavy toll. The proportion of foreign workers in these sectors was 30 and 18 percent, respectively. “There are a lot of bankruptcies and high unemployment so far, so we don’t know how many people will be needed after the crisis,” said Kate Nichols, chair of the lobby organization of UK catering companies. The sector continues to seek financial assistance from the government. Experts also warn that in some sending countries from Eastern Europe, especially Poland, people have much better opportunities than before, so they will not return to work as a guest on the foggy British island.
