Without additional restrictions, the omicron variant could cause a significant increase in the UK in January, researchers at the London Shcool of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine wrote in a recent study, acknowledging that their model may still be affected by a number of uncertainties. In any case, based on their current knowledge, it is estimated that by the end of April, another wave of epidemics may have 25-75,000 deaths if urgent steps are not taken to prevent the spread of the omicron variant.
Depending on the emergency scenario, stricter restrictions are needed to avoid overcrowding in hospitals. Even in the optimistic scenario, 20.9 million people and 175,000 people needing hospital care are expected to be reinfected by the end of April, and the most pessimistic estimates put up to 34.2 million new patients and 492,000 people needing hospitalization over the course of the year. same period.
According to the BBC The study should not be considered as a prediction but by describing the possible outcomes, the possibilities shown in it are greatly influenced by external conditions. For example, the inclusion of a third vaccine, which can significantly mitigate the effects of the Omicron wave, as the researchers themselves said.
Nick Davis, one of the scientists involved in the research, told the BBC that omicron was spreading “very quickly”, which was “very concerning”, and he told the BBC that the variant could become the dominant viral mutation in the country by the end of the year. How quickly it spreads is well illustrated by the fact that despite massive vaccination, the number of new infections doubles every 2.4 days on average. In other words, the omicron spreads faster than the original virus variant, now that the majority of the population has already been immunized against the disease to some degree. (via BBC)
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