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The global economy can grow faster – Portfolio.hu

The global economy can grow faster – Portfolio.hu

The international credit rating agency announced that in 2024 as a whole, global GDP is expected to grow by 2.4 percent. This represents a significantly improved forecast, by 0.3 percentage points, because in its previous global report, the Council had forecast global economic growth of 2.1 percent for this year.

According to Fitch analysts in London, the main reason for the positive correction is that the credit rating agency sharply raised its forecast for the US GDP growth rate this year from 1.2 percent in its previous forecast to 2.1 percent. According to the company, the key factor behind this adjustment is that the unprecedented pro-cyclical expansion of the US budget deficit last year gave a boost to domestic consumption, while also explaining the surprisingly resilient growth of the US economy last year. year.

Fitch Ratings analysts confirm that the impact of global growth resulting from a significant improvement in US growth expectations exceeds the effects resulting from a marginal decline in Chinese economic performance expectations.

According to the credit rating agency's revised estimate on Wednesday, China's GDP will expand by 4.5 percent this year instead of the 4.6 percent the company had expected so far. Fitch analysts in London also reduced their expectations for the average growth of the euro zone economy this year from 0.7 percent to 0.6 percent.

Meanwhile, the company expects GDP growth of 3.2 percent by 2024, which is 0.1 percentage point faster than the pace it has forecast so far, in the emerging region outside China, stressing that growth prospects in Russia, India and the Chinese Brazilian economies are improving.

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Fitch Ratings expects global growth of 2.5 percent by 2025, which is the same as current expectations, stressing that according to its expectations, recovery will also begin in the euro zone economy next year.

Other large analytical workshops in London also judge the growth prospects of the global economy better than before. In its latest revised forecast, Oxford Economics improved its full-year global growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 2.4 percent, and said it expects growth in the global economy to accelerate to 2.6 percent in 2025.

The Council stated in its study that this growth performance would mean a “soft landing” for the global economy, and that this “would not be any kind of achievement” after the strong interest rate increases implemented by central banks in 2022 and 2023.

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