Well, for the EU as a whole, it could grow by a maximum of 0.9% this year, while growth is expected to reach 1.7% next year. European Commission experts reduced the growth rate this year in the euro zone from 1.2 percent to 0.8 percent, while they lowered their expectations for next year from 1.6 percent to one and a half percent. There is no cause for confusion, as the expected recovery for 2024 will be more modest than previously expected.
This may not be felt on a day-to-day basis, unless consumer prices fall more than expected and real wage growth rises more than expected. And it's not just the European Commission that has become more pessimistic: the updated assessment reinforces negative signals that the Old Continent may be sliding into a long-term slowdown. In recent weeks, both the International Monetary Fund and the OECD have lowered their forecasts for European countries this year, while global forecasts have been revised upward. Let us add: Hungarian economic actors are interested in the eurozone's emissions capacity being greater, given that more than eighty percent of our exports go there.
By the way, the general interest rate is not only high in our country, but also outside Lajta, where the current ECB interest rate of four percent is a record in the Eurozone, and we can't blame the rapid shift.
Returning to economic growth, and given the values expected in Western Europe – 0.9 percent in France, 0.7 percent in Italy, 0.3 percent in Germany – there is no reason for complaint. According to European Union economists, Hungary is expected to grow by 2.4 percent this year and 3.6 percent next year.
Inflation in our country is also slowing down: according to European Commission forecasts, it will fall to 4.5 percent in 2024 and 4.1 percent in 2025. Whatever our calculations, based on the European Commission's assessment, Hungary may be at the top of the EU economic growth rankings this year. general; The reported increase of 2.4 percent significantly exceeds the European Union average. The Hungarian government expects higher growth of 3.6 percent.
In other words, after last year's collapse, 2024 could be a year of enhanced economic growth. It is also important to talk about the structure in which growth must occur. The so-called healthy structural expansion in our country means the necessity of bringing home consumption out of recession, a jump in corporate investments, and an expansion in exports.
While EU resources may lead to new financial dynamics, it is still important that confidence in the Hungarian economy remains strong. This is supported by the fact that the arrival of working capital for companies sets a record almost every year, as well as the fact that when the Hungarian government issues foreign currency bonds, there is great interest in them.
