In his annual review on Saturday, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said he expects right-wing forces to advance in June's European Parliament elections and thus succeed in making Europe great again.
According to him, the European Union is moving in the wrong direction with the current leadership – although he did not specify exactly what he meant by Brussels, he clearly indicated that it would be ideal for him if the forces of the right and far-right emerged. They will have a majority in the European Parliament, so that they can decide who should be in the European Commission and who should be at the head of the European Council, which brings together the heads of state and government of member states.
This is not the first time the Hungarian Prime Minister has expressed this expectation. And about the importance of following the Austrian model long before the 2019 European Parliament elections Wire, when the center-right populist Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) and the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) jointly governed Austria, but at the same time the government collapsed after the Ibiza scandal of then-FPÖ leader HC Strache. Orbán then “switched” to the Italian model, where under his leadership Matteo Salvini had the far-right, anti-European League party ruling as a junior partner with the left-wing Five Star Movement.
Even before the 2019 European Parliament elections, Orbán wanted an alliance between the center-right and the far-right to materialize in EU politics as well.
At the same time, the expected right-wing breakthrough in 2019 did not materialize. The centre-right, who was also previously a member of Fidesz European People's Party The EPP remained the largest force despite losing 34 seats, while the groups to its right, the Brotherhood of Italy led by Giorgia Meloni, and the right-wing Eurosceptic side of Poland's then ruling party, Law and Justice (PiS). European conservatives and reformists (ECR) – where Fidesz, according to Tamas Deutsch, wants to enter – and the Eurosceptic far right Identity and democracy The EPP did not gain sufficient mandate to gain a majority in the European Parliament by joining the EPP – moreover, the EPP has shown no willingness to cooperate with groups to its right.
However, there is a greater chance this year of a far-right breakthrough that was predicted five years ago – although PiS has been in opposition in Poland since last December, the Party for Freedom (PVV), which has toned down its previous anti-Muslim messaging. In the Netherlands and German public opinion, the far-right Alternative for Germany party, which had previously been in political quarantine, won and is doing well in the field of research.
So the only question is how
Can the right-wing wave that Viktor Orbán wanted be achieved?
He leads the Prime Minister's potential allies in many countries
Compared to 2019, this idea of the Hungarian Prime Minister no longer seems like wishful thinking, because in many countries, conservative, far-right or Eurosceptic parties, which he calls right-wing and sovereigntists, are at the top of opinion. polls, so they can win more seats than they did in 2019.
In the Dutch elections last November, for example, the far-right Freedom Party led by Geert Wilders won a majority of votes, after which Viktor Orbán and Foreign and Trade Minister Peter Szijjarto expressed their joy. Szijjarto said in his congratulations to Wilders:
There is no doubt that you represent a breath of fresh air in European politics.
Wilders won the elections after the new leader of Mark Rutte's centre-right liberal People's Party for Freedom and Democracy, the former “Dutchman”, Dylan Jesselgosz, announced his willingness to sit with Wilders in order to support Wilders. Negotiating a possible government coalition – in any case, Wilders has changed his unconstitutional anti-Muslim platform (he banned the Qur'an, closed Islamic schools) into anti-immigration and Eurosceptic messages.
Meanwhile, Wilders probably won't have access to government after all. Coalition negotiations between the Party for Freedom, the Liberal Party and two other parties, the centrist anti-establishment New Social Contract and the agrarian populist Farmers and Citizens Movement, have ended unsuccessfully, and it is envisaged that a new government will instead be formed. A very broad government coalition, or formation, running from center-left to center-right is created.
Despite this – or precisely because of the opposition of the traditional parties – Wilders continues to lead opinion polls confidently,
It cannot be ruled out at all that the far-right party will win a majority of the 29 seats in the Dutch Parliament in the European Parliament elections scheduled for next June.
Apart from the Netherlands, there are also parties in the European Council or the Identity Party that are leading in public opinion polls. Examples include Italy, where the Italian Brotherhood, led by Giorgia Meloni, ruling in a coalition of the center right and the far right, is heading into the election campaign with a confident advantage, and in Germany, for example, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. ), which was previously in political quarantine, is ranked second.
Along with them, the far-right National Pact Party, which won eternal second place in the presidential elections in France, is leading the opinion polls. As for Austria, which will hold parliamentary elections in the fall after the European Parliament elections, it currently appears that the far-right FPÖ party will win the largest number of seats. .
In addition to the above-mentioned countries, a political force within the Identity Party family leads in Belgium, while in Poland, the Law and Justice Party, which lost last year's elections and maintains good relations with the Hungarian government, is in second place.
Even at this moment, there will not be a majority
Meanwhile, in the four countries mentioned above, research is being conducted to no avail by political parties opposed to European integration,
In the majority of member states, mainstream centre-left, liberal or centre-right parties continue to govern and lead public opinion polls.
In the 27 member states, the country is currently led by the right-wing parties desired by the Hungarian Prime Minister, in addition to Hungary, in Italy and the Czech Republic, which are critical of the Hungarian government, while they are present in Finland. As junior partners. It is possible that the Netherlands will join them if Wilders is finally able to agree on a coalition, and the Austrian Freedom Party can return to the government in Austria after the parliamentary elections scheduled for this year.
Thus, the right-wing progress that the Hungarian Prime Minister wants is not expected in the European Council, which brings together heads of state and government.
In the 27 member states, only the parties of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala have seats in the European Council, and there is currently no head of state or government in Europe – moreover, at EU level, Meloni, with whom the European People's Party is aligned With the European People's Party, he often votes for the European mainstream, while Fiala's party is critical of the Hungarian government. The majority of the European Council consists of the centre-right, economically liberal European People's Party with a total of ten members, followed by six economically and socially liberal politicians and five social democratic politicians.
Currently, the situation is similar in the European Parliament. In the only EU institution directly elected by European citizens, after the 2019 elections, the centre-right European People's Party, the Socialists and Social Democrats, and the Liberal Renewal Party had the largest number of seats in order, and the three groups of representatives vote together in most times. It is sometimes supplemented by the environmental left-wing Green Party and the GUE/NGL, which brings together far-left and Eurosceptic parties.
At the same time, this may change after the European Parliament elections, where – as shown above – many countries currently lead parties in the European Council or the EU.
However, according to current state estimates, which are still very early, a breakthrough by conservative forces in parliament is unlikely.
the EuropeElects According to his January estimates, an informal coalition of the EPP, Socialists, Democrats and Renewal was still expected to form in the European Parliament, where according to national opinion polls the three representative groups would have a total of 402 mandates, giving them a large majority in 720 seats. Member of Parliament.
Although the Identity Party came in third place – ahead of the Liberal Renewal Party – according to current opinion polls, it will not obtain a majority with the EPP and the European Council. Moreover, the EPP is unlikely to agree on the two opposing parties. . -Integration with a conservative party family. Manfred Weber, leader of the EPP family and the party's parliamentary group after the Dutch elections last year He said The European Union must resolve the migration issue, otherwise the far right will advance in the June elections.
In the European Parliament, the European Council and the Democratic Party rarely vote with the informal coalition, the EPP-Socialists-Renewal, and their representatives appear to differ from the EPP in parliamentary debates.
It is therefore unlikely that the EPP will be willing to harmonize its programs and views.
Whatever the outcome of the European Parliament elections in June, the most decisive representative group will certainly remain the People's Party, but at the same time the number of its representatives is constantly decreasing compared to the last elections.
However, there are a lot of question marks
Although, based on opinion polls conducted in January, the previous “Austrian model” is less likely to be implemented in the European Parliament than in 2019, the right-wing parties appointed by the Hungarian Prime Minister may gain more seats.
According to January research, all three members of the current informal coalition – the European People's Party, Socialists and Democrats and Renewal – may get fewer seats than five years ago, while the Identity Party may get 83-96 seats compared to the current 76 seats. While the European Parliament may get 83-96 seats. The current seats will be 61 seats, instead, they will be divided between 73 and 84 seats according to the different models.
But this is still not enough for conservative parties to advance.
Although the EPP will likely lose a few seats, it can still get 170-186 representatives, which would make them the largest representative group. The EPP could follow the Socialists and Democrats with 131-145 representatives, and the Identity Party could come in third with the aforementioned 83-96 representatives, well behind.
At the same time, it is still too early to make any statements, since the campaigns have not yet begun, and a high-profile local political event could also replace the current search.
A good example of the latter is the AfD, whose support has recently begun to decline after its steady rise last year, after it was revealed that one of its politicians participated in a backroom meeting of an avowed neo-Nazi organization, where they discussed how to do so. German citizens of foreign origin can be banned from entering Germany.
Thus, as a conclusion, we can only say that compared to 2019, support for Eurosceptic parties has actually increased, and the third place for digital ID seems more and more certain. However, there is still a lot to be done for the Austrians to achieve that. A model that can be achieved at EU level as well.
(Cover photo: Viktor Orbán on February 1, 2024. Photo: Joanna Giron/Reuters)
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