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Withdrawal from the federation could be a modern form of nationalist Hariri

A kilépés az unióból a nemzeti harakiri modern formája lehet

The Scottish elite enthusiastically supported the creation of a federation with England and Wales in 1707, as this allowed them to participate in the enrichment of the English language. Before that, they tried to colonize the territory of present-day Panama, which ended in miserable failure. Subsequently, the Scots were heavily represented in the growth of the British Empire in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries at nearly all levels of the state in proportion to their numbers, while in the two great wars of the twentieth century, the Scottish regiments were underrepresented in the British army.

In general, in peacetime, the Scots were given greater opportunities to advance in the British Empire for generations than they would have expected without – Writes In his opinion piece published in Bloomberg, Niall Ferguson is a historian and propagandist who campaigned assertively in the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum in order to remain in the British Confederation.

The latter includes the fact that the United Kingdom has had 11 Scottish prime ministers over the past three centuries, including Tony Blair and Labor Prime Minister Gordon Brown from recent decades, but the conservative father, David Cameron, who replaced them, is also a Scottish-born. The current prime minister, Boris Johnson, is not very popular with the Scots because they see a caricature of a typical English figure.

bad idea?

Historian Bloomberg attributes in part to his hatred of the fact that the cause of Scotland’s independence came to power, which he says is a scandal. In Scotland, there will be elections for the local Parliament on 6 May, during which the Scottish National Party (SNP) is expected to obtain an absolute majority through a program whose main component is to call a referendum on the secession of Scotland from the United Kingdom. This would allow for a fourth referendum on the country’s general condition within five decades, including a second referendum after 2014 on independence.

The Scots voted for a second attempt in 1997 to grant the rights to delegate their country in the United Kingdom’s legal system (devolution). Two issues were identified as to whether there should be a Scottish Parliament and whether it should also have tax collection rights. Both obtained large majorities, so in 1999, for the first time since 1707, Parliament met in Edinburgh. Of the 129 seats (Scotland, a country of five million), Labor won 56, shrinking to 24 in the 2016 Scottish elections. Meanwhile, the Scottish National Party, which won the election for the first time in 2007, has increased , 69 seats by 2011.

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Let it tear

Blair and a number of prominent Scottish politicians in the Labor Party believed that by delegating power they would dismantle the pursuit of independence, but that they had made a fatal mistake. After seeing the success of the Scottish National Party in 2011, Cameron went to call the independence referendum in 2014, in which the remaining parties won 55-45 percent. However, in a new referendum, the situation will be different because it will be called after Brexit, indicating that while the people of England and Wales voted for Brexit in 2016, Scotland and Northern Ireland had a majority in favor of remaining.

The end of the story may be the breakup of the United Kingdom, and perhaps the most surprising thing is that a large percentage of the member states that have lived together for centuries will not regret it. According to a poll conducted in January, half of the English and the Welsh, 60 percent of Northern Irish people, believe that Scotland will become an independent country within 10 years. 45% of English people will not be interested in or even happy with this development, while 71% of Scots and 57% of English will not care or be happy if Northern Ireland left the United Kingdom to unite with the Republic of Ireland.

It wouldn’t be a foamy cake

If the majority of Scots chose independence in a referendum, that would put their country in a very difficult position. First, you must re-apply to the European Union. Accession would not be a torch relay, mainly because there are countries, led by Spain that are struggling for Catalan independence aspirations, that would set an unwanted precedent in accepting and transiting an excellent new EU country from another. (Acceptance requires a unanimous decision by the member states of the European Union).

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On the other hand, the nuclear base of nuclear powered nuclear submarines in the British Navy is located in Grea Loch, Scotland, 70 kilometers from Glasgow, which will be an embarrassing security concern for the independent country and its neighbor. Third, the monetary and financial problems are enormous. Let’s not forget, as the historian Bloomberg recalls, that before the merger of 1707, 12 pounds had to be paid for the English pound. Now, for example, the question will arise as to how much of Britain’s public debt will go to Scotland. What money will they pay, because the euro can be used, as Kosovo does, but that does not mean the introduction of a single European currency that would give the head of the Scottish Central Bank a seat in the management of the European Central Bank.

And what can the real economy show? The answer to this is that North Sea oil is Scotland’s natural treasure. The problem is that production has fallen early after peaking in 1999, and now is the low point of the crude oil era. Experts point to low firm productivity, fewer start-ups, and the fact that firms are stuck with small size.

Unpleasant past

The propagandist who opposed Scottish independence also recalls that prior to the unification of 1707, independent Scotland was not a completely peaceful place. Opposition groups and clans fought each other on religious grounds, as well as continued outside interference, resulting in the country being in a place like Afghanistan today. For many Scots, it is only about being able to get along with their fellow countrymen when they meet each other abroad.

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The split is marked by the battle that took place in recent weeks between Alex Senmond, a former member of the Scottish National Party, and Nicola Sturgeon, the current president of the couple. The former was charged with 14 common sexual harassment in a government-led investigation of the Scottish National Party, which the court ruled was biased and exaggerated. Consequently, Salmond could accuse the sturgeon and the leaders around him of the systematic desire to make it impossible. Ultimately, under the name Alba (which means Scotland in the Scottish Highlanders language, on the record), he formed his own party, which wants to run for elected parliamentary seats in order not to cause competition for the individual candidates of the Scottish National Party.

the vast majority

Bloomberg’s propagandist sees Scottish independence as a semantic structure of contradiction, that is, the relationship of conflicting words – dead alive, terribly good. The Scots have been known in the world for centuries as an independent people free from the nation-state. This is evidenced by the fact that six million Scots live in the United States, five million in Canada and two million in Australia, without the need to indicate an independent country to determine their identity.

Calling a referendum on Scottish independence sooner or later seems inevitable, but perhaps the British government could choose a better solution to take the lead on this than it has envisioned. Instead of strictly refusing to hold a referendum, as long as possible, the criterion established by the Supreme Court of Quebec, which intends to secede from Canada, should be chosen. According to this, the province can leave the Federal State of Canada if a specified majority of the population so wants, that is, not only 50 percent plus one vote in favor.

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