Perhaps the most important economic question for 2024 is how much GDP growth will be in Hungary. The country is hungry for expansion, because 2023 will only bring stagnation at best, and slight stagnation at worst, i.e. decline.
On the other hand, it is clear that everyone expects growth this year, although various forecasts show a significant deviation. The initial boost was provided by the latest GDP data: Hungary's GDP in the third quarter of 2023, according to revised data, fell by 0.3 percent compared to the same period of the previous year, but actually rose on a quarterly basis by 0.9 percent. It also means that the decline in economic output ended after one year.
The economy in Hungary grew better than anywhere else in Europe
But it can also be shown that it was not only successful, but that it managed well to emerge from the recession. After all, domestic growth on a quarterly basis significantly exceeded the EU average (plus 0.1 percent). It is true that the annual change in volume was less than that (here, the figure for the EU was an additional 0.1% according to the first estimate).
However, the government has already drawn attention to the fact that Hungary's growth can be said to be one of the best in the European Union. According to quarterly data
- Irish (minus 1.8 percent),
- Austrian (minus 0.6 percent),
- Czech Republic (minus 0.3 percent),
- Estonia (minus 0.2 percent),
- Portuguese (minus 0.2 percent),
- German (minus 0.1 percent),
- Lithuania (minus 0.1 percent),
- French (plus 0.1 percent),
- Spanish (plus 0.3 percent),
- Belgian (plus 0.5 percent)
- and Latvia (plus 0.6 percent)
The economy's performance has also lagged dramatically behind Hungary's. If everything is correct, this difference and the Hungarian advantage will remain throughout 2024.
How much will the Hungarian economy grow in 2024?
Naturally, the Cabinet put its numbers on the table
According to the latest information, the GDP increase this year could reach 3.6-4 percent.
The first is the promise of Finance Minister Mihajal Varga, and the second is the promise of National Economy Minister Marton Nagy. Whatever is closer to reality, these results will certainly mean remarkable economic growth. But to be able to grasp their actual weight, it is worth taking a look at the country-by-country commitments made in Europe regarding economic growth in 2024. To this end, our paper has pulled together the latest forecasts for December and January. January – which cannot always be governmental – on which EU member state and what the expectations are.
What is the size of economic growth in the countries of the region in 2024?
It's worth looking up regional numbers first. It is worth it only because of its special and at the same time very interesting location
- Starting the line with Ukraine. This is now his second year in the country, which was invaded by Russia this year 3 percent Growth is expected. Don't be fooled by this, it is largely due to foreign subsidies.
- Next Romania Where the government 3.4 percent Expect economic growth.
- In Bulgaria Almost identical to 3.3 percent Forecasting.
- Serbia has not done so yet Member of the European Union, but still an important regional state. With them 3.5 percent Expansion is the goal.
- Croatia Moreover, it already can be a state in many ways. 2024, To 2.6 percent However, the excess GDP in this period is also lower than the Hungarian counterpart.
- In Slovenia For this year 2.2 percent Growth is planned.
- in Austria The same 0.6 percent That is, it could be slightly above the recession.
- In Slovakia It's better than that, there 2 percent There is an opportunity for expansion
- Czech Republic The calculation is also done using a similar but somewhat lower indicator: By 1.9 percent.
- Poland It remained somewhat above this range 2.3 percent Recorded forecasts.
If we compare government and central bank estimates and analyzes with those of the Hungarian government, it can be seen that if the forecasts are confirmed, the growth of the Hungarian economy will be unparalleled in the region this year.
What is the size of economic growth in the European Union in 2024?
In order to get a complete picture, it is useful to expand the circle to include other EU countries, especially Western European countries, in order to see what their economic forecasts are about and how they compare to local forecasts. In this regard, there is no more important data to exaggerate
- In Germany, It is the largest economy in Europe and has a significant impact on Hungarian performance as well. There is no talk of growth with them, but they expect an immediate decline. Minus 0.5 percent.
- Italy At least it is not stagnating, but the situation is not very rosy: just that 0.7 percent They hope for more.
- France According to the Ministry of Finance 1.4 percent GDP growth may vary, although according to experts, more than half of this growth cannot be achieved.
- In Spain According to the latest amendment of the Central Bank 1.6 percent Plus it is expected from 2024.
- Sweden You can't throw it out the window either 0.2 percent Hope for growth.
- in Belgium, 1.23 percent plus appears to be in its institutional position.
- In the Netherlands this year 3 percent Expansion can occur.
- in Portugal Recently, the growth trajectory has shifted downward, and only now 1.2 percent Offers
- In Ireland The central bank is also dovish now 2.5 percent Plus sees realistic.
- In Luxembourg There is also doomsday mood and recovery from recession 2 percent They are poised for growth.
- In Estonia The crisis is at its peak, so it is highly questionable whether the crisis can get worse 2.7 percent Whether it is necessary to resort to waiting for the budget.
In other words, a similar picture is emerging in our west as well as in the region: there is nothing better than Hungarian growth prospects. Now all that remains is for the Hungarian government's optimism to be confirmed.
The livelihood crisis of the past two years has been much more devastating in other Visegrad countries, where without exception we can see real wage data that is more dramatic than in Hungary. While in our country these rates are still at the 2021 level, in the Czech Republic they are close to the 2017 average.