Perhaps the most important economic question for 2024 is how much GDP growth will be in Hungary. The country is hungry for expansion, because 2023 will only bring stagnation at best, and slight stagnation at worst, i.e. decline.
On the other hand, it is clear that everyone expects growth this year, although various forecasts show a significant deviation. The initial boost was provided by the latest GDP data: Hungary's GDP in the third quarter of 2023, according to revised data, fell by 0.3 percent compared to the same period of the previous year, but actually rose on a quarterly basis by 0.9 percent. It also means that the decline in economic output ended after one year.
The economy in Hungary grew better than anywhere else in Europe
But it was also possible to determine Not only did we succeed, we managed to come out of the recession well. After all, domestic growth on a quarterly basis significantly exceeded the EU average (plus 0.1 percent). It is true that the annual change in volume was less than that (here, the figure for the EU was an additional 0.1% according to the first estimate).
However, the government has already drawn attention to the fact that Hungary's growth can be said to be one of the best in the European Union. According to quarterly data
- Irish (minus 1.8 percent),
- Austrian (minus 0.6 percent),
- Czech Republic (minus 0.3 percent),
- Estonia (minus 0.2 percent),
- Portuguese (minus 0.2 percent),
- German (minus 0.1 percent),
- Lithuania (minus 0.1 percent),
- French (plus 0.1 percent),
- Spanish (plus 0.3 percent),
- Belgian (plus 0.5 percent)
- and Latvia (plus 0.6 percent)
The economy's performance has been strikingly lagging behind that of Hungary. If everything is correct, this difference and the Hungarian advantage will remain throughout 2024.
How much will the Hungarian economy grow in 2024?
The Cabinet, of course, put its numbers on the table
According to the latest information, the GDP increase this year could reach 3.6-4 percent.
The first is Mihaly Varga Minister of Finance, the latter Minister of National Economy Marton Nagy His promise. Whatever is closer to reality, these results will certainly mean remarkable economic growth. But to be able to grasp the real weight of this, it is worth taking a look at the commitments made by individual countries in Europe regarding economic growth in 2024. To this end, our paper has compiled the latest forecasts from December The first to January – which cannot always be governmental – on the future prospects of the European Union countries.
What is the size of economic growth in the countries of the region in 2024?
It's worth looking up regional numbers first. It is worth it only because of its special and at the same time very interesting location
- Starting the line with Ukraine. This is now his second year in the country, which was invaded by Russia this year 3 percent Growth is expected. Don't be fooled by this, it is largely due to foreign subsidies.
- Next Romania Where the government 3.4 percent Expect economic growth.
- In Bulgaria Almost identical to 3.3 percent Expectations.
- Serbia has not done so yet Member of the European Union, but still an important regional state. With them 3.5 percent Expansion is the goal.
- Croatia But yes, on top of that, it can be quite a state in many ways. 2024, To 2.6 percent However, the GDP surplus is also smaller than the Hungarian surplus.
- In Slovenia For this year 2.2 percent Growth is planned.
- in Austria The same 0.6 percent That is, it could be slightly above the recession.
- In Slovakia It's better than that, there 2 percent There is an opportunity for expansion
- Czech Republic The calculation is also done using a similar but somewhat lower indicator: By 1.9 percent.
- Poland It remained somewhat above this range 2.3 percent Recorded forecasts.
If we compare these government, central bank and analytical estimates with those of the Hungarian government, it can be seen that if the forecasts are confirmed, Growth of the Hungarian economy It will be unparalleled in the region this year.
What is the size of economic growth in the European Union in 2024?
In order to get a complete picture, it is useful to expand the circle to include other EU countries, especially in Western Europe, in order to see what their economic forecasts are about and how they compare to domestic forecasts. In this regard, there is no more important data to exaggerate
- In Germany, It is the largest economy in Europe, and it has a significant impact on Hungarian performance as well. There is no talk of growth with them, but they expect an immediate decline. Minus 0.5 percent.
- Italy At least it is not stagnating, but the situation is not very rosy: just that 0.7 percent They hope for more.
- France According to the Ministry of Finance 1.4 percent It can achieve GDP growth, although experts say only half that growth can be achieved.
- In Spain According to the latest amendment of the Central Bank 1.6 percent Plus it is expected from 2024.
- Sweden You can't throw it out the window either 0.2 percent Hope for growth.
- in Belgium, the European Union At its institutional position, it looks like a plus of 1.23 percent.
- In the Netherlands in this year 3 percent Expansion can occur.
- in Portugal Recently, the growth trajectory has shifted downward, and only now 1.2 percent Offers
- In Ireland The central bank is also pessimistic, and now 2.5 percent Plus sees realistic.
- In Luxembourg There's also doomsday mood and recovery from stagnation 2 percent They are poised for growth.
- In Estonia The crisis is at its peak, so it is highly questionable whether the crisis can get worse 2.7 percent Whether it is necessary to resort to waiting for the budget.
In other words, a similar picture is emerging in our west as well as in the region: there is nothing better than Hungarian growth prospects. Now all that remains is for the Hungarian government's optimism to be confirmed.