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They will be the biggest losers in Viktor Urban

They will be the biggest losers in Viktor Urban

On Monday noon, it was revealed in a letter that Prime Minister Viktor Orban told German Chancellor Angela Merkel, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel, President of the European Council, that the Hungarian government would veto the EU legislation. Seven-year budget and redemption fund.

The background is that the Hungarian government does not want subsidies to be subject to the rule of law. The Prime Minister’s spokesperson, Bertalan Havase, commented that the measure would threaten confidence between member states and Hungary’s interests if the next seven-year budget and the emergency recovery package were subject to conditions that did not specify the alleged violation, and could arbitrarily lead to political sanctions on the budget using double standards. Shared values, including the rule of law, are fundamental to Hungary, and their application and application must be judged by the Hungarian people, who have the same capacity as any other European country. Those who are less sympathetic to Orban’s government, of course, say that the Cabinet, which has so far failed to uphold the rule of law, fears that the European Commission will have a real “disciplinary tool” in its hands, which is not in the prime minister’s interest.

Elbow kiss of Viktor Urban and Charles Michel ahead of the EU summer summit in Brussels – the current veto has become a bear cub (Photo: Council of Europe)

Orbans can trust adults

Whatever reading we adopt, the Hungarian (as well as the declared Polish veto) will definitely stop smooth European operations. The big question is whether the European Union will swallow the frog or try to set an example in this case. It can be assumed that the Hungarian and Polish governments feel that the problem is greater now because society is stuck in helping the state and will dilute the standard to the point that it is already acceptable to the two countries concerned. They can only trust this because French President Emmanuel Macron, who is not necessarily sympathetic to the Hungarian government, has recently been willing to make serious concessions on the altar of quick economic aid. Angela Merkel, Europe’s grandmother, did not sharply confront the Hungarian government.

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By the way, in the context of the budget battles that took place over the summer, thanks to the French-German couple, a change actually occurred in the interests of the Hungarian government. At that time, the European Union decided to make payments of EU funds subject to democratic standards in the future, but the original proposal was greatly relaxed, which the Hungarian government considered acceptable, so experts indicated that it is difficult to put it into practice.

Viktor Urban gained new fury

The Hungarian and Polish veto, as we have indicated, have put the recovery fund on hold in addition to the budget. Nevertheless, the resulting resources will be vital to many southern European countries. In any case, the procedure is relatively slow, since the agreement must first be ratified by the member states, after which it is possible to prepare a common bond issue and only after its implementation. This was originally achieved by experts for the second quarter. On the one hand, the current veto is sure to cause problems and further delay the ability to withdraw funds.

There are many scenarios, depending on which compromises the parties want to concede. At best, they can only replenish the Recovery Fund next fall, but it is envisioned that member states will only be able to receive funds from it in early 2022.

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There is no doubt that this delay represents a serious political and economic blow to Italy and Spain, which have been hard hit by the crisis. In addition, the French, Portuguese and Greek economies were also hoping to receive an “additional boost” from the sources. But they have to wait a while. It is not difficult to see that after wealthy northerners (such as the Dutch and Danes) who looked at the Hungarians with a tilted eye, the government was now able to win over some enemies in the south. From this point of view, the question is certainly related to the success of the confrontational policy of the Polish and Hungarian governments in general.

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