Many see limiting population growth as vital. This is also in the interest of rapidly developing countries, as in Nigeria and Bangladesh, for example, food security is a growing problem. The countries concerned do not know what to do with the problems caused by the population, which has increased many times over the past few decades. They weren’t ready for that, they just couldn’t have been prepared. While in some countries the problem is rapid population growth, in others the problem is population decline. In some ways, decline can be seen as a sign of progress — there’s less stress on the natural environment, topsoil drains more slowly, and people don’t live on each other’s feet. In developed countries, population decline is accompanied by a decrease in the number of people of working age, and an increase in the number of inactive elderly people, for whom care, treatment and recreation pose a major economic challenge.
According to many Western countries, immigration is the only sure way to stop population decline.
The Hungarian model does not follow this path. The government is trying to achieve the number of births needed to reproduce the population by improving the family support system. Results are encouraging, but trends show that despite efforts, the country’s population continues to decline. Professor Eva Berdy of Corvinus University in Budapest and her student Aron Drabanch reported in the journal Demography – the study was published in mid-November – that the population of our country will continue to decline in the coming years: by 2070 it will be in the range of 7.66-8.93 million costs
We are not alone. The three most populous countries face a similar situation. China’s population will soon decline, and by 2100 it may become half of what it is now. India’s population of 1.4 billion will peak around 2050. The population of the United States will decline beginning in the 2030s if there is no immigration. While the population of the world’s least developed countries is expected to double by 2050, the population of more than sixty, mostly European countries, will decline.
The compilation of the Central Statistical Office, also timed to mid-November, gave a lot of interesting data.
As staggering as it may sound, the population growth rate in the 1960s was the most significant in the world, at about 2% annually. In recent decades, the growth rate has slowed down, and in 2020 it no longer reaches 1% per year. At first, the improvement in the mortality rate led to a staggering growth, which was mitigated by half a century of fertility decline. According to calculations, the number of births may exceed the number of deaths for a few decades, however, in parallel with the aging of the population, the number of deaths also increases, so the rate of expansion continues to slow down.
As a result of declining fertility and improving life prospects, humanity is aging faster and faster. In 1950, a much larger proportion of the population than it is now were children and adolescents, and the number of elderly people remained much smaller than the number of younger age groups. Consider the numbers: Children under the age of five accounted for nearly 14 percent of the population at the time, and those over 65 were three times as numerous. In 1950, the percentage of people over 65 years old was five percent, and in 2021 it is ten percent. In 2018, they exceeded the number of children under the age of five for the first time. Europe and North America have the largest population, with the proportion of people over 65 years of age on these continents in 2021 about 19 percent. The youngest is sub-Saharan Africa, where the proportion of the elderly is three percent.
The percentage of people over the age of 65 is expected to be around 16 percent by 2050, which is twice that of people under the age of five. By 2050, one in four people in Europe and North America will be 65 or older.
Climate change, turbulent economic situation and social conflicts lead to an increase in international migration. International migration has no impact on the development of the world’s population, but it does affect individual regions or countries. Whereas in 1980 only 2.3 percent of the world’s population lived in a country other than the country in which they were born, in 2020 3.6 percent, a total of 281 million people, have made this statement. Currently, North America and Europe are the two most popular regions. In low-fertility countries, emigration can offset the natural decline in population, while in sending countries, emigration can cause population decline.
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