The next victim of Brexit is sitting in a hornet’s nest

Liz Truss, United Kingdom New Prime Minister He received a beautiful legacy from his predecessor, Boris Johnson. Thanks to the ex-prime minister’s huge victory in the parliamentary elections at the end of 2019 – made famous by Get Brexit Done! (Let’s do Brexit!) – The Conservative Party has a parliamentary majority of 80 people. However, this is disingenuous, because the representative group is not expected to support his policy as a single person, writes A. financial times.

First of all, the Prime Minister has to face the fact that, unlike membership participating in the party vote, a majority of Conservative Party MPs supported his opponent, former Finance Minister Rishi Sunak, in the party’s election campaign. In addition, it is true that he won the race by a large margin, with the vote of 57 percent of Conservative Party members, a difference of 14 percentage points, which is 30 percentage points less than expected by public opinion polls. .

first 100 days

Johnson’s allies, who have known Conservative MPs well over the past three years, believe that controlling the parliamentary group will be Truss’ most difficult task. Especially in the first 100 days, when you have to make unpopular economic decisions – in response to the livelihoods crisis – you will have to get money from the business sector to support families.

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A Tory strategist frankly stated that, despite the overwhelming majority, he would have to govern as if the ruling party and the opposition were roughly balanced in parliament (hung parliament). Another expert, well acquainted with the internal processes of governance, spoke of how the conservative representative group is not ungoverned. There is no discipline and no skills to support difficult decisions. According to another conservative strategist, MPs spend far more time managing their Twitter image than absolutely necessary.

Several groups can turn against him

British business newspaper authors remind us that Sunak won the last presidential election round within the caucus – after which the campaign for party membership took off – 137-113. Because of a similar flaw, the last time Ian Duncan won a party election, he was only able to lead the party between 2001 and 2003, even though he never became prime minister.

That is why the first group that might turn against the new prime minister may come from representatives who supported the previous opponent. Sun will not be a minister in the new government because he has no higher position than the Treasury, which he already held, and cannot get it again after Truss. tax cut He described his promises as a “fairy-tale” policy.

Johnson men

The other group of more than 100 people belongs to representatives specifically To Boris Johnson They have a seat to be thankful for, after the former prime minister was able to win over voters in northern England, who traditionally belong to the Labor party’s base, with his social promises. Conservatives won several constituencies in this area. Someone thought his career was in jeopardy because of Johnson’s downfall.

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In addition, loyal (blind) supporters of the former prime minister are already preparing for his return. Seemingly premature, Johnson – and Sunak – have now called on followers to support Truss.

Upcoming elections

An interesting company with which the new prime minister could have problems is the crowded camp of former ministers. The Conservatives have been in government for 12 years in a row, and have undergone many government formations and government reshuffles, so they are a big group. They are already past the height of their political life, so they can take partisan discipline, which is necessary for the adoption of bills, lightly.

But what Liz Truss can certainly count on is the upcoming parliamentary elections. There are less than two years left until the new vote, and when politicians feel their high-paying velvet seats are in jeopardy, it is in their interest to present the image of a united, ruling party to the electorate.

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