According to Thomas C. Thiener, to carry out a successful counterattack in the south, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will need at least two mechanized divisions, which will require at least 600-800 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs).
He believes that Ukraine can mobilize about 300 vehicles from its own stock, as well as from BMP and BVP IFVs donated by the former communist countries, but still have to donate at least 300 combat vehicles to Western countries.
However, it is not impossible for a potential counterattack to be successful, as the lack of IFVs could be replaced by armored personnel carriers and 4×4 MRAPs, but these do not provide nearly the same amount of firepower and protection for infantry formations as the IFV.
The West wants to bleed Russia and push it to retreat, but it does not want it to be defeated [a harctéren]
– Writes Theiner.
It is worth noting that Dan Sabbagh, a security policy expert at the Guardian newspaper, recently expressed similar thoughts, but objected that Ukraine had not received Western tanks and fighter jets, which would be necessary to carry out a counterattack.
Thomas C. Thiener writes regularly about the weapons used in Ukraine, after working for many years in Ukrainian newspapers as an expert on security policy and military technology, and previously served in the Italian Army.
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