Over the past week, an average of nearly 600,000 new infections were recorded worldwide, a number that is steadily increasing. Although the epidemic curve has not yet reached the level of last fall or this spring, due to strong infection of the delta variant, the epidemic may move to similar levels in the fall. The main hope is that fewer and fewer infections will be the norm, but how will the number of serious cases evolve – at least in regions of the world where vaccination coverage is already high.
However, the number of infections is still not insignificant, as it indicates the extent of the presence of the virus in humanity, which in turn affects the chances of a mutation. The emergence of new variants reduces the effectiveness of vaccines, so it will be important to virtually reduce the spread of vaccines.
The virus can also spread in highly vaccinated countries, such as the United States, where the epidemic is now higher than in the spring wave and is increasing sharply.
A counterexample is Britain, where the spread of the delta variant has begun to slow despite the country’s restrictions. The number of infections is high, but the epidemic in Spain appears to have stopped. However, there is no sign of braking in France.
A really strong acceleration can be observed in Asia. In every region we find countries with large populations and epidemics.
According to our calculations (based on seven-day moving averages), the epidemic peaked in 22 countries around the world. These are not necessarily the worst countries, as the number of infections is only at its peak, but it still indicates that there are many areas in the world where there is a clear acceleration and a greater challenge to the health systems of the countries. Examples of these countries are Algeria, Bangladesh, Cuba, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Malaysia, Morocco and Thailand. Here, vaccination is not yet slowing the spread, so on the one hand, lockdowns (and the resulting economic disruptions) can be expected, and on the other hand, the chances of new viral variants emerging are increased.
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