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The Bulgarian gas situation is getting worse, which Hungary should also pay attention to

The Bulgarian gas situation is getting worse, which Hungary should also pay attention to

The fact that he was Bulgarian on Tuesday afternoon may be related to this Press statements Gazprom will withdraw from Bulgaria and sell about twenty gas stations. This is intended to prevent the confiscation of its assets, as indicated by the Bulgarian Finance Minister a few days ago, if it does not pay the duties imposed on the delivery of Russian gas, which was primarily targeting Gazprom.

The most likely scenario is that Gazprom will not pay the fees that Bulgartransgaz will invoice on the basis of the latest data request letter by November 14. Then the big question is what happens. the Based on Gazprom’s latest statement, he wrote: The amount of bank guarantee that Bulgartransgaz can seize in principle is only about 160-170 million Bulgarian leva, but according to the article, it will not be able to do so either.

From the Hungarian perspective, it remains highly uncertain where the strong action the Bulgarian state will take against Russia and against Lukoil and Gazprom will lead, and what this will do to the long-term Hungarian-Russian gas contract executed through Turkey. flow. According to Portfolio information, the scenarios range from uninterrupted gas delivery via the Turkish Stream to the cessation of Russian deliveries, and their contents, in brief, are as follows:

  • For now, everything stays in the usual bed: Russian deliveries continue on the Turkish Stream line, and Gazprom has not yet paid the Bulgarian invoice sent to it. Under this scenario, it is also possible that the two companies behind the long-term Hungarian-Russian contract, Gazprom and MVM CEEnergy, would agree that the Hungarian company would for the time being assume the Bulgarian duties, which would be overburdened. From Gazprom. According to our previous calculations, the annual cost of this would amount to about 150 billion Hungarian forints per year. It is also conceivable that the Russians will signal to the Bulgarian authorities: they will sell the Lukoil Naftohim refinery (which is partly what the Bulgarian government wants to achieve), and in return they will demand that Bulgarian transit fees be stopped or reduced to an acceptable amount. per megawatt hour.
  • Officially, transportation of Russian gas to Bulgaria is halted so that Gazprom can avoid paying duties, but in practice it continues with the help of appointed Turkish and Azeri intermediary companies. Since it is impossible to determine the source of the gas coming to Turkey and from there to Bulgaria (gas washing), Bulgarian fees cannot be collected, while particles of Russian gas continue to flow to Bulgaria, and then to Serbia and Hungary continuously. wrap.
  • Officially and practically, Russian gas supplies via the Turkish Stream to Bulgaria will stop, which will also affect the long-term Hungarian-Russian contract. This simply means that Gazprom is able to fulfill our annual contract of 3.5 billion cubic meters via a different route, practically via Ukraine and Slovakia, which also fulfills the smaller annual contract (billion cubic meters) on the new route. Thus, all this leads to Ukraine getting the transit fees, not Bulgaria, which may be in line with the interests of some European and American great powers.
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In recent weeks, we have focused on the Bulgarian case, which has a potentially significant impact on Hungarian-Russian gas contracts:

Cover image source: Shutterstock

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