The Council on Foreign Relations published a recent report stating that China’s slowdown in economic performance could lead to a military escalation with regard to the Taiwan issue.
According to the Brain Trust, Chinese President Xi Jinping may turn nationalist rhetoric into influence that could further weaken economic indicators.
Many factors contribute to the slowdown in China’s economic performance, from the aging of society to the deepening of the US sanctions policy. The latter has a significant impact on the development of the technological sector. Analysts fear that as economic performance declines, the Chinese president will try to win back social support for the Communist Party by amplifying nationalist voices. However, Hsien, who is serving his third presidential term in a unique way, must also think about his legacy. CFR analysts think so
The Chinese president will see the solution of the Taiwan issue as his outstanding political legacy.
According to the report, the escalation point for the conflict could be if Beijing begins to demand that Taiwanese civilian vehicles be placed under the control of Chinese customs authorities. If this happens, China will blockade the island and strangle its economy. Breaking the blockade could then lead to immediate military conflict.
China has already tested the blockade tactic once, in April, when Tsai Jingwen visited California to meet with Speaker of the US House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy. Beijing announced that it might order inspections of cargo ships in the Taiwan Strait, but that ultimately failed. But according to experts, this was the first test of the idea.
The report also indicates that Washington should not lose its focus on Taiwan. Allies in the region must also participate in the defense of the island, as without their infrastructure, the United States cannot respond effectively. However, the roles to be played in island defense must also be clarified with Japan, the Philippines, and Australia, and ongoing dialogue must be maintained. Analysts point out that the most effective response to aggression would be a formal military alliance with Taiwan.
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