For a year now, economic analysts have been working at peak times to explain and forecast operations. In the meantime, we have seen a large margin that may result from model reliance (which, by nature, starts from past trends), anticipation of desires, and most importantly, uncertain judgments about uneconomic factors.
It’s really hard to integrate epidemiological aspects such as the virus spread, people’s response, and authorities’ actions into business models. Affirmations have often been over a quarter earlier than life. We can recall how countries have been disproportionately affected by the spring 2020 wave (the first as it soon becomes apparent): frightening death rates in northern Italy (“Bergamo”), while the eastern tip of the European Union has just been wiped out by a pandemic.
In the summer, after the worst phase, the word “recovery” began to spread in the wake of news of a successful vaccination, indicating that the epidemic would be followed by a rapid recovery, the signs of which were already showing at the international level. Money markets.
Then came the second wave, and then the third. Earlier this year, the promising news about the vaccine softened business leaders and raised their targets in leading economies. However, confidence is only one step away from optimism. However, we have already seen some serious mistakes and self-deception in epidemiology.
Currently, the epidemic situation is the most dangerous in those countries, including Hungary, which was less affected by the epidemic in the beginning and summer of 2020. However, the Hungarian and Czech mortality data for this year give a sad picture of the situation in the region. Elsewhere, the indicators are much better, but given the three waves of pandemics so far and large areas of the world not vaccinated, it would be blind trust to believe that the epidemic will soon end.