London analysts: The Hungarian economy could launch like a rocket this year

London analysts: The Hungarian economy could launch like a rocket this year

a Morgan Stanley In a new regional forecast presented Friday, an emerging markets analyst at the London investment division of Global Financial Services noted that the Hungarian economy grew at an annual rate of 17.9 percent in the second quarter, vastly exceeding analysts’ consensus.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley in London expected Hungary’s GDP to rise 16% compared to the same quarter last year.

In their assessment of the situation on Friday, House experts said: GDP growth is stronger than expected in the second quarter and has continued 7 percent based on favorable growth forecasts – well above the consensus forecast for 6.1 percent GDP growth They raised their forecasts for the Hungarian economy’s full-year growth this year.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley in London confirmed that their new forecast significantly exceeded those of Magyar Nemzeti, with MNB currently forecasting 6.2% growth in the Hungarian economy this year.

At the same time, Morgan Stanley’s forecast for Hungary’s GDP growth is expected to be more modest at 3.6% annually by 2022, mainly due to the higher base this year, but also because the company expects the Hungarian economy to grow closer to before. The coronavirus epidemic, and this is expected to slow the pace of recovery next year.

In the current growth environment, the house expects twelve-month inflation in Hungary to peak at 5 percent in November.

Against this backdrop, Morgan Stanley analysts in London expect further monetary tightening by MNB in ​​the coming months, and their current expectation is that the Hungarian Central Bank’s policy rate will peak at 2.10 per cent in the current tightening cycle.

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In the Hungarian economy, other big London homes are also forecasting strong annual growth this year in their latest forecast, but Morgan Stanley’s revised forecast on Friday is the most optimistic yet.

a Standard & Poor’s The credit rating division of the Global Financial Services Group (S&P Global Ratings) reaffirmed the “BBB/A-2” rating of Hungary’s long- and short-term government debt with a stable outlook unchanged the other day, and stated it in the explanation. Note: You expect real full-year growth in the Hungarian economy this year, assuming that the number of coronavirus infections does not begin to rise rapidly again.

According to forecasts by London-based S&P analysts, the value of Hungary’s GDP may reach its pre-coronavirus level again this year.

Another global credit rating agency, Fitch Ratings It also recently reaffirmed Hungary’s long-term foreign-currency sovereign debt rating at “BBB” with a stable outlook, noting that it expects Hungary’s GDP to grow by 6.5% this year and 4.8% annually in 2022-2023. Real terms.

Fitch analysts in London highlighted that the projected growth rates significantly exceed the growth potential of the Hungarian economy.

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