Index – Technology – Science – Breakthrough: Cosmic rays predict earthquakes
An important discovery was made by the Polish Academy of Sciencesfrom Raku colleagues of the Institute of Atomic Physics (IFJ PAN) when they determined that earthquakes are preceded by an increase in cosmic radiation reaching the Earth’s surface. There is a relationship between the two phenomena that has not yet been recognized, and it makes it possible to predict earthquakes, thus saving thousands of lives.
The statistical recognition of the Polish researchers is based on a civilian science collaboration in which the institute has been working since 2016. Anyone can join the CREDO (Highly Distributed Cosmic Ray Observatory) program that measures cosmic radiation through an app downloaded to a smartphone. The app uses the phone’s camera’s CMOS image sensor to collect data on cosmic rays hitting the Earth – and nearly twenty thousand people have joined the search.
It’s a matter of details, but it will be important in the story that cosmic rays barely reach the surface of our planet. Earth’s magnetic field deflects most of them, and some of the incoming rays are destroyed by colliding with oxygen or nitrogen atoms in the higher atmosphere and raining on the surface in the form of secondary radiation.
At first glance, it is strange that there is a correlation between earthquakes and radiation from the sun or the universe, but there is a completely logical physical basis for this.
Dr. explains. Piotr Humola, CREDO program coordinator and author of the article presenting the discovery.
Earth’s magnetic field is generated by iron-rich magma flowing into the planet’s core. An event that changes this dynamo’s flow not only causes an earthquake, but also affects the magnetic field. So the scientific assumption was that changes in cosmic radiation reaching the surface due to changes in the magnetic field could predict an upcoming earthquake.
To prove the theory, it was only necessary to compare the seismic data with the amount of cosmic radiation. In addition to CREDO, the experts used data from the half-century-old Neutron Monitor database and data from the Pierre Auger Observatory, which has been operating since 2005, while the US Geological Survey earthquake database was used.
Statistical techniques have shown a correlation between secondary cosmic ray levels and earthquakes of 4 or greater on the Richter scale. Cosmic ray distortions precede seismic events by 15 days.
What happens to the planet is what we see
Dr. confirmed. Humola they didn’t just come up with any stats. In scientific life, the prerequisite is the standard deviation of 5 sigma, but the certainty of Polish calculations is 6 sigma, that is, the probability of a series of coincidences leading them is one in a billion (the chance is much less than five). where we receive a letter).
All of this is very good news from an earthquake prediction standpoint, but there is a small problem: it is not clear how effectively the predicted location of an earthquake can be determined based on cosmic rays.
At the moment, this phenomenon is global, but it still has a mysterious property: it exhibits a cyclic fluctuation, alternating in a period of 10-11 years, similar to the solar cycle, but not coinciding with it. Mysteriously, another 24-hour cycle corresponding to Earth’s rotation also appeared in context. Researchers believe that these phenomena may be caused by extraterrestrial factors – one speculative explanation is that the Earth passes through varying amounts of dark matter in the wake of the Sun or another massive body.
One of the essential elements of the discovery is that the huge magnetic field of the Earth can be seen mainly as a large and sensitive detector, and through changes we can also discover cosmic phenomena that are not possible even with the most modern instruments directly generated by ourselves.
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