It is well known that weather forecasting cannot be completely accurate even with current measurement tools, instant access to data and supercomputers. Each page can expect to draw completely different conclusions from the same data based on their own models.
European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Predicts a four-week period and shows – broken down by week, in weekly averages – the amount of deviation expected from 20-year averages. Expected anomalous temperature on maps In blue Burgundy shades appear warmer than average in warmer areas.
There is broad consensus that Hungary will turn blue by Sunday. The only question is, how much frost will come, will Lake Balaton freeze over? While weather.com, also offered by Google by default, can reach 8 degrees in Lake Balaton on Saturdays and Sundays, local forecasts indicate that the temperature will remain below freezing all the time.
Do you think Lake Balaton will freeze over the weekend?
Five institutes, two foreigners and three home countries were selected to compare their expectations. In addition to weather.com, we collected data from the National Weather Service, two popular local pages (Weather and Cloak) and an international one (accuweather.com) from January 14 to 20 for three settlements. In addition to Budapest, Siófok was chosen because of Lake Balaton, while Nyíregyháza was chosen because the biggest colds are expected in the northeastern regions of the country in the next week.
We’ll return to how much the prediction has been verified later, in the meantime everyone can choose for themselves what prediction and weather to trust:
Cover photo: MTI / Varga György