Thirteenth. Until Pope Gregory's calendar reform (1582), December 13 was the shortest and darkest day of the year, but despite the fertility spells and various predictions of love and magic associated with Lucca's magical day, the Lucca calendar remains a living tradition. Many people still record the weather in the days leading up to Christmas and claim that Luca was saying it correctly. In contrast to synoptic meteorology, which is based on scientific foundations, the long-range weather forecasts of the Lucca Calendar are based on the observation that
The weather for the next twelve months can be predicted from the weather of the twelve days between Saint Luke's Day and the 24th.
Lucca Day (December 13) corresponds to the weather of January, December 14 to February, and December 15 to March.
On December 20, we can come up with empirical results for August 2024 and on December 24 for December 2024. Roughly like this: If it is colder than usual on Luka's day, let's say, a teeth-grinding frost, then you can expect a severe cold in January as well . If it continues to rain on Luka's day, we will not only have a cold, but also a snowy January. If the sun shines on December 20 and not a single drop of rain falls, we can expect a sunny and dry August next year.
They trust him
Many people swear by Luca's method. It is said that he recorded the predictions and followed them systematically, and that the predictions came true, and indeed Luca proved to be an excellent meteorologist.
He has every chance to do so.
Theoretically, nothing prevents the possibility of such a close relationship.
Because there are interconnected climate patterns in unfathomably complex natural systems. For example, every few years on the coasts of Ecuador and Peru, around Christmas, local fishermen are unfortunately faced with the fact that they can only catch much smaller quantities of fish from warm coastal waters than at other times, they know that they have to prepare not only for the year Shorter, but also for extreme weather. Today, even meteorologists are known to have observed the natural climate anomaly El Niño (little boy, after Little Jesus) that occurs every two to seven years, which can often distort the weather in Europe: now, for example , promises climate change. Mild winter.
We last asked Luca two years ago, and now we have once again checked with data from the National Meteorological Service (OMSZ) how correct his forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are.
- In 2021, we looked at the deviation (anomaly) of national mean temperatures for days between 13 and 24 December from the climatological norm (base period) between 1991 and 2020. In other words, we looked at how different the national average temperatures for each day are from the average of the past 30 years.
- We added to this the deviation of the average temperatures for the months of 2022 compared to the climatic base period.
- We did the same for the Lucca days of 2022 and the months of 2023.
But we compared not only temperature, but also precipitation. These are bold comparisons, but that's what the famous popular prophecy is about.
Photo: Kitty Columban/Index
Photo: Kitty Columban/Index
The temperature changes in the Lucca days two years ago seemed to point in the same direction as the temperature of the five months of 2022. That is, they worked (more or less) for about half the year.
When comparing rainfall, it should be taken into account that the rainfall of one and a half to one to two millimeters that fell in December days stands side by side with the amounts of rain that fell in one month (5 to 50 millimeters). Given their trends, they are in sync for nine months of the year, though, and it is impossible to read any meaningful correlation from the data.
Photo: Kitty Columban/Index
Photo: Kitty Columban/Index
The forecast for this year was not as good as last year, and there is hardly a coincidence (difference in the same direction), the data is quite mixed.
So Luca wasn't really excelling a year ago.
It is also worth looking separately at what was noted for this fall, namely (OMSZ Climate assessment According to ) it was a special season, the warmest Hungarian autumn since 1901 (it was also a record warm autumn globally, and the hottest since 1940). September was record warm, and October was the third warmest month in Hungary. However, on December 21, 2022 – which would have been a record September for the year – the weather was only slightly warmer, only half a degree than normal at that time, meaning that Luca saw (presented) the future quite vaguely.
This fall was not only warmer, but also wetter than average. In November, for example, it rained more than twice as much as usual. In the last chart
There also stands a lone black pillar next to November, and Luca is nowhere to be found.
(We're still working on December, so by definition there's no data on it yet.) Even two years ago, Lucca's calendar showed more significant predictions, although they were not very convincing.
There is also an onion calendar and Lucca's chair
Using this kind of power, we can also create a traditional onion calendar for Luca Day. Take six large red onions, cut them in half, scoop out the middle, and sprinkle salt inside. Then, depending on the amount of juice released from one half of the bulb, we deduce the extent of rainfall in the individual months of the following year.
Or we can even trust lucaszék, which you also have to start DIYing on December 13, but are only allowed to carve a little on it every daybecause To fit the pentagon shape It must be ready by Christmas Eve, so that we can spot the witches at midnight mass, whom we had better avoid at once by scattering poppy seeds behind us, so that we can beat the mouse's trail while the malicious banyans pick them. And escape. And light triumphs over darkness.
So far, it seems that meteorologist Luca is also competing in this cultural field. Of course, this can easily happen from time to time Can To fit properly in the future.
(Cover Photo: Sunset after a storm over Lake Balaton on April 20, 2021. (Photo: György Varga/MTI)
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