The new president is supposed to be chosen from among “people in the prime of life” – likely including incumbent Joe Biden and his rival Donald Trump, who is four years younger than him.
However, it would be irresponsible to ignore the poll data: Robert F. Kennedy is higher than any previous independent candidate. In doing so, you have a realistic chance of influencing the outcome of the 2024 election.
He would receive 22 percent of the votes of registered voters if the presidential elections were held now. He said Quinnipiac University Survey.
In April, this was still the case while he was running for the Democrats as a rival to Biden in the primaries, then half a year later he changed his mind and announced in October that he was running as an independent.
The last independent candidate to receive a fifth of the support behind him in the year before the election was Ross Perot in 1992. In the election, he finally received 19 percent of the vote.
In 1980, John Anderson also ran for election with 20% support, but received only 7% of the vote in the election. Alabama Governor George Wallace, famous for his racist and extremist views, had an approval rating of 21 percent in 1968, and was eventually forced to settle for 14 percent. remind me CNN.
There is no certain ending
It’s too early to say what kind of score Kennedy will end up with next year, but The New York Times and Siena College From his pollhe received nearly 20 percent support in the states – Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Michigan – where Biden beat Trump in 2020.
The poll sparked some Democrats and outright euphoria among some Republicans.
In five of the six states, Trump is this time ahead of Biden, meaning that if public opinion does not change, the former president can count on a final victory.
However, after Kennedy, known for his anti-vax views, was added to the list, Trump’s lead shrank to two states, and his five-point lead in Arizona and Pennsylvania melted into a tie.
In short, Trump’s clear leadership has disappeared. Thanks to Kennedy, there is no certain winner in the electoral colleges at the moment. Biden’s support rate is 34 percent and Trump’s is 36 percent in the six states.
They can also have a say in the final outcome
The situation is complicated by the emergence of another independent candidate. Philosopher and actor Endorsed by Cornel West 5 percent on average. In addition to him, Jill West has also confirmed that she will run for president again.
In 2016, the Green Party candidate won far more votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than Trump did against Hillary Clinton, who likely lost the race due to West’s arrival.
This time, Joe Manchin also floated the idea of running, but the West Virginia senator backed out at the last minute, even though his approval rating was still at 10 percent in the summer.
Independent candidates may not kick the ball, but they will certainly win over a portion of the major party’s voters, and thus will have a say in the final outcome.
(Cover photo: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at the presidential campaign launch event on October 12, 2023. Photo: Eva Marie Ozcategui/Getty Images Hungary)