The conservative European Fidesz project can come true, but Viktor Orban will not do well, experts say for the index. Our editorial office also spoke to several sources familiar with the Fidesz strategy in Brussels, after the Hungarian ruling party left the representative body of the EPP and then the EPP itself. As we wrote earlier, Viktor Orban has long been planning to reconstitute the forces of the European Parliament, which will now have to look for supporters in new societies after the People’s Party. Shortly after our previous article was published, the Hungarian Prime Minister posted his plans on Facebook, saying:
Our mission is also clear. Now, without the EPP, we need to build a European democratic right home to European citizens who don’t want immigrants, don’t want multiculturalism, haven’t fallen into the LGBTQ frenzy, stand up for Christian traditions in Europe, and respect the sovereignty of nations and their people. The nation is not their past, but as part of their future.
In essence, the idea will apply Fidesz’s proven home-made recipe to the European theatre. The ideologically divided European Right is traditionally weaker than the Left, which also includes liberals and Greens, and thus the strategy aims to create a bipolar parliament that reflects Hungarian political conditions. A united libertarian right could indeed overcome ideological fault lines in the middle of an opponent’s path, and conservatives could provide a permanent majority against the weak left. The ideal backdrop for this would have been the most powerful faction in the EPP currently with 175 seats, but the unification of the Christian Democratic Community has failed. The European People’s Party is not a homogeneous broker, with a wide range of like-minded representatives from nationalists to liberals. The Fides Plan also included an alliance with the Eurosceptic Conservatives and Reformists, ECR, which centrist party members did not want to hear about. Several experts who spoke to the Index indicated that the problem with Fides was not that the plate within the EPP had drifted to the far right, but that the glass was full of power politics and a lack of negotiation skills.
Many members of Germany’s ruling party also agree with Viktor Orban that the People’s Party should take a stronger right-wing stance. However, the series of harassment made the whole thing, eventually exhausting Fides himself, and society slowly expelled the Hungarian ruling party from itself.
– Our source said about CDU / CSU relations. He cited Manfred Webert, president of the EPP Group, as an example. The CSU’s Bavarian politician has been walled in in Fidesz for years, calling the 2013 Tavares report attacking the Hungarian government unworthy, then seeking a compromise with the Hungarians during the CEU affair. However, the faction leader, who was between two fires within the party, slowly turned against Fides, in line with his personal interests, after the mood changed within the CSU and EPP.
For Viktor Orban’s grand right-wing project, only the two Eurosceptic parties, the 62-seat ECR and the 75-seat Identity and Democracy party, remain. With their alliance, a new right-wing force could emerge, but there is no successful agreement that would reshape relations with the European Parliament: even with the 12 Fidesz members, they would have only 149 seats in total. However, according to experts who commented on the index, such an alliance faces several obstacles.
- Euroskeptics came not for something, but against European integration. It follows that the scope of cooperation is very shallow.
- If they find common ground at the ideological level, their national interests are likely to conflict. This is the case with anti-immigration, where the interests of right-wing transit countries (such as Italy) or destination countries (such as the Netherlands) for immigration are completely different.
- Most of the national parties operating in party families are built on powerful people, which slows down cooperation. Moreover, in the event of a disagreement between two leaders, the conflict will have a greater impact on the entire society.
- Moreover, the Christian churches do not recognize Euroskeptics. However, it is difficult to build a credible right into European politics without their support.
In light of all this, the question arises whether Fidesz lacks the creation of such a community. In vain, the creation of a European democratic right seems to be a good thing, in fact, this makes it easier for the public to identify Viktor Orbán as the leader of the far right.
Moreover, these political groups are declining across Europe, think of the Green Party’s victory in German provincial elections or the fourth victory of Liberal Prime Minister Mark Rutte in the Netherlands. The eurosceptic right can be strengthened again only if Marine Le Pen can present an alternative to Emmanuel Macron in next year’s French elections, or if Matteo Salvini’s party returns to government in Italy. However, the chances of this are slim, as they probably know on the vids.
However, according to Zoltan Jivay, Bruxinfo reporter, the biggest deterrent to Fidesz remains Germany’s ruling party. With the creation of the new right-wing alliance, Fidesz will be on a platform with the radical AfD, thus drawing an accusing finger at the government of Hungary’s most important economic partner.
Although Fidesz seceded from the EPP, Hungary did not secede from Germany
– said Zoltán Gyévai. The expert added that this would be a particularly bad move now, in the wake of the election campaign in Germany, while it is AfD Constitutional proceedings began against In addition, the balance of power in Hungarian domestic politics is changing. The opposition coalition may cause a surprise in the 2022 elections, so according to Zoltan Jivay, Viktor Orban will focus more on internal affairs in the coming period. As a Bruxinfo expert, our other source commented: Urban has never been overshadowed by the European Parliament anyway. He’s always considered it a putty engagement, so he’s included in the kit so that he sees the whole maneuver as an unnecessary risk.
(cover photo: Reuters)