The performance of the Hungarian economy in the last quarter of 2020 came as a big surprise. Despite the domestic and foreign austerity measures, the GDP grew by 1.1% on a quarterly basis in the last three months of last year. M1 Summa magazine said analysts had expected a 0.4 percent drop from mid-November due to restrictions in place.
According to preliminary data, the economy performed only 3.7 percent, and according to revised numbers, it was down 4.3 percent from the previous year. The analyst’s forecast for this was 5.5 percent.
The quarterly expansion of 1.1 percent also means that Hungary avoided another contraction, the W-shaped crisis curve.
There is an increase of 1.1 per cent on a quarterly basis in Hungary, while the average is down 0.4 per cent in the European Union, one of the leading economists Stephen Laurand Zakkale. These data show that the economic policy has succeeded in improving the social, health and economic aspects.
According to Eurostat data published so far, on a quarterly basis, 16 EU countries were able to show some growth in the last three months of last year.
However, GDP growth in most countries ranged from 0.1 to 0.6 percent over this period.
In Hungary, growth in only four countries was higher than the 1.1 percent increase. The GDP of France, Italy or even Austria shrank in the last quarter.
“With the release of GDP data for the fourth quarter, it also became clear that in 2020, the GDP rate was 5.1 per cent lower than the previous year. It is also better than the European Union average.” Mihaly Varga, Finance Minister, confirmed in his comment.
The average for the European Union was even higher, at 6.4 per cent. This overtook countries such as Austria, Belgium, France, Italy and the Czech Republic. ” he added.
Economist Geza Sebastian confirms with regard to a 5.1 percent drop in GDP,
That during the previous crisis, the rate of decline was much higher, at about seven percent.
At that time, by international comparison, the crisis affected our country more severely.
The current crisis has had a much greater global impact than the 2008-2009 crisis. So this is a much deeper crisis internationally, and the Hungarian economy was able to bounce back from this crisis with a much smaller, much smaller decline. On the one hand, this is great news, and I think it shows that the measures that were taken here to save, support and preserve the economy have actually succeeded. “ Advertise
In addition, the performance of the fourth quarter of last year may have a positive impact on 2021 as a whole.
We expected growth of 4.2 percent in our forecast for December. In contrast, new forecasts will be released in March, after the release of detailed data. If we talked at the end of January when the restrictions were extended, I would say that at this 4.2 percent increase, we would expect a smaller expansion due to the restrictions. But now, given the favorable fourth quarter data, it shows that many sectors have already restarted, up and running, and I might even say growth could be a little better than this. – said Gabor Regus, head of the macroeconomic business unit.
The government expects the economy to grow by between four and five percent this year. At the same time, according to many analysts, the reality of the largest increase is growing.
Cover photo illustration.