In recent weeks, Budapest was clearly the highlight of the fifth wave of the outbreak due to the Omicron variant, and even on weekends, most new infections were recorded here. It was the only place where the epidemic broke the record of previous waves.
This geographical relationship is changing more and more often, as the provinces are more and more “developing” in relation to the capital:
In the past seven days, nearly as many new infections have been recorded in Pest County per 100,000 people as in the capital, other counties are showing.
It can be clearly seen on our usual map that the omicron variant attacks with the greatest force in central Transdanubia after central Hungary, where the provinces of Western Hungary darken day by day, and Győr-Moson – the number of cases is rising in Sopron.
As the counties approach the capital, we also looked at the number of cases from the past two days, and it can be seen that In yesterday’s data release Pest, Zala and Komárom-Esztergom, and today Pest is ahead of the capital. Of course, this could mean that Budapest will be in first place this week, but in the near future it may be overtaken by some provinces in a more permanent way.
One of the biggest surprises in this week’s data is that
While infection data in Budapest previously indicated a peak, the slowdown has now stopped.
The deviation from the “normal” epidemic and the uncertainly high rate of latent infection make it impossible to predict when the epidemic wave in the capital will peak, said Gabor Vatay, a physicist at ELTE. The figure below shows that the weekly growth rate of the number of cases in the capital has stopped declining, so it is no longer possible to predict when there will be no growth on a weekly basis.
However, the expert believes that the recent data in the capital could only be a pause in the slowing trend. The guiding principle in this is the epidemic in New York, according to which the ascent can continue for up to 30 days after the beginning of December 26. So, it could now be a week max in Budapest, says Vatay, who adds that this was conceivable two to three days before the new data, and that’s now a little bit late.
Thus, the catch-up in the countryside is taking place in such a way that, in addition, the epidemic in Budapest has also accelerated, but the growth among the most affected districts in Gyr-Moson-Sopron and pest districts is already more. Dynamic, suggesting the aforementioned rural catch-up.
Another novelty is that after Budapest, the daily number of cases broke the record in Pest County and Gyor-Moson-Sopron County. The situation is now as follows in each county:
- He has passed the peak of every wave so farBudapest, Pest County, Gyr-Moson-Sopron County.
- He has already passed the peak of the fourth wave, but not after the third wave: Somogy County.
- He has already passed the peak of the third wave, but not the fourth wave: Zala Governorate.
- Neither the third nor the fourth wave reached its climax: Fejér, Komárom-Esztergom, Veszprém, Vas, Baranya, Tolna, Borsod-Abaúj, Heves, Nógrád, Hajdú-Bihar, Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok, Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg-Késás, B.
Currently, little is known about the severity of the epidemic caused by the omicron variant in a country. It is a milder disease than its peers, but since it is spread by more people due to its rapid spread, it can cause a more serious epidemic at the community level. At the moment, the data in Hungary is encouraging: the number of hospitalizations increased by 34 (1.3%) compared to the minimum of 2,611 last Friday, but decreased by 44 people from Tuesday to Wednesday, while there are 208 ventilators. , which is 14% less than on Friday.
We have seen a change in the proportion of people officially infected in a hospital or ventilator in the last 14 days, but so far only a clear trend can be seen in recent weeks, which is normal at the beginning of each wave (since the previous days) the wave is lower, the new wave There are fewer serious patients). More statistics are likely to emerge in the coming weeks.
Cover Photo: Getty Images
