The opposition’s poor campaign can easily be blamed for Fidesz’s landslide victory.
“While the waves around the other two-thirds slowly subside and everyone is trying to find the cause of defeat in someone else, a small but important fact is lost: not much has passed.
If someone has a quarter of an hour, go to the polling point page and look at the results for Districts 1 and 2 by district. These are the county seat areas.
Together with the pro-government district of Budapest, one eye will find nearly a dozen districts in which Fides won by about 5%. If for some reason you can be nervous, angry, self-proclaimed, find it here. 5% sounds big, but it’s actually 2-3000 upvotes. But there are a few city districts in the castles of Fides like Veszprém or Tatabánya, where for example in the character of Janos Benchik the very good local candidate, who has been running for decades, was supposed to get 5-6 thousand votes, started.
There are 2-3000 votes in each district, which means that there are many people who are unhappy with Orbán but did not vote for the opposition. In the 5 to 6000 voting rounds, the math isn’t thrown that way, but it’s close.
That is, there are about a dozen districts in the country where there are apparently enough people dissatisfied with the government to go and vote against it. If only half of those were brought in by the opposition, they wouldn’t have two-thirds now, including our Homeland and the Ornamental Shield.
Looking at these districts, it turns out that there is a mixed mihazánkos candidate in most places, a dog party candidate performing nearly half a percent, and a few camouflaged candidates about half a percent.
This could have been the job. It is not a very simple task, because the pro-dog voter and the voter are on opposite sides of the political spectrum, so it was necessary to choose between which direction the opposition was trying to move, especially in the countryside. In addition, the canine voter is more likely to retain his or her voting preference, making it more difficult to target.
The task was to start the opposition with Hungary near the entrance, in the countryside. This is a very difficult task and it is a question of whether it is even possible. I tend to say yes if the opposition campaigns better. Only here stands out what I wrote in the previous longer post: the opposition wanted to present itself, not respond to the preferences of its potential audience.
There is a professional solution to this problem. The problem is as follows: approximately 0.5-1.5% of vids need to be compressed, and 1-2% need to be filled; opposition. If there is a dog voter who would vote for such a campaign, that’s a bonus, but it’s worth counting on up to a few dozen. Defeating Fides is impossible, but it was achievable. It was not achieved because they did not know that it was the mission in the campaign, and it was not carried out.
So I don’t think the opposition campaign should be held responsible for Fidesz’s victory. Vids moves well and is 3-6. Implemented perfect logistics operation in the county districts with serial numbers. On the other hand, the opposition’s poor campaign could easily be blamed for Fidesz’s landslide victory. The results show that Fidesz won a dozen counties without having a good chance of winning, only winning by a close score. If the opposition wins half of it, then there will be 6 more individual places, 2-3 places in the list next to it, and there will be no two-thirds of Fides, not even with Hungary, or at most together. With them. “
Opening photo: Attila Trinca / Mandiner