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How far will Peter Magyar go, and where does Europe go next? European Parliament elections start here too

How far will Peter Magyar go, and where does Europe go next?  European Parliament elections start here too

Today the European Parliament and municipal elections are taking place in Hungary. In the framework of the European Parliament elections, we decide which parties or party unions will be able to delegate representatives to the European Parliament.

Twenty-one places are up for grabs

Hungary will still have 21 seats in the European Parliament, and their number will increase from 705 to 720. Exactly. Same number of actors The Czech Republic, Greece, Portugal and Sweden can also be delegated. Belgium one more and Austria one less.

Incidentally, Germany (96), France (81) and Italy (76) can send the highest number of representatives, while Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta can send the least (six representatives each). At the same time, elected representatives will naturally not be grouped into factions by country, but by political affiliation.

European Parliament building in Brussels – Who will we send to Brussels and Strasbourg?
Photo: European Parliament

The elections officially take place from June 6 to 9 at EU level – in fact, they have already begun in Estonia on Monday. Polls in Italy are scheduled to close at 11pm on Sunday at the latest, so the first partial results – regardless of the fact that they will already be available in several countries – can only be announced after that. This also applies to Hungary.

According to the statement sent to our newspaper by the European Parliament, the preliminary election results are expected to be available around 11:15 p.m. to 11:30 p.m. Before that, the European Parliament will issue estimates based on opinion polls.

What do household pollsters measure?

As for internal opportunities, Median published the latest opinion poll before the elections. Measure them according to Among certain voters, Fidesz could get 50 percent of the votes – this would win the elections by a landslide, but at the same time it would be lower than the result achieved in the last European Parliament elections in 2019 (52.6 percent).

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The team of Peter Magyar, the diplomat and lawyer who opposed the National Reform Party, could take second place, the de facto Tisza party, only a few months old, which packed Hósok Square at the closing event of its election campaign in Budapest on Saturday and could win outright. 27 percent of the votes.

According to the poll, Peter Magyar succeeded in attracting voters from all parties: 63% of his supporters came from the parties belonging to the Joint Opposition List, 9% from Fidesz, and 7% each from May Hazanek and Kutiapart.

Endre Hahn, Managing Director of Median, at the Klasszis Média event of our newspaper group, and in the Klasszis Klub As he saidthat Peter Magyar also won over a quarter of a million voters who did not participate in the 2022 parliamentary elections.

DK-MSZP-Párbeszéd can follow Tisza, also by a significant distance, with 9 percent. This is a significant drop compared to the fact that in 2019 they received 16 and 6.6% of the vote respectively – 22.6% combined.

It is certain that these three parties and party alliances will enter. Two other parties – Mi Hazanc and Kitvarko Kutia Part – hover around the five percent threshold (measured at five and four percent respectively). Momentum, which had 9.9% in 2019, is now only 3%, so it may withdraw from the European Parliament.

Based on Median's measure, Fidesz-KDP will be able to delegate 11 representatives, namely TISA 6, K-MSZP-Barbeszd 2, Mi Hazanek and Kutiapar 1, to the EU Parliament.

The General Institute also published on Friday research He measured TESA's party as having similar strength (25 percent) to the average. At the same time, Fidesz sees it as much weaker (43%), while the KDP-MSZP-Barbeszid is much stronger (15%). Mi Hazánk, Kutya Párt and Momentum teeter on the threshold.

According to Publicus, Fidesz-KPR could win 11 seats, TISA 6 seats, MSZP-Barbeszd 3 seats, and Mi Hazanek 1 seat.

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Závecz's research was published on Wednesday research According to Fidesz 45, Tisza 27 and DK-MSZP-Párbeszéd 11 percent in terms of number of confirmed voters, while Mi Hazánk 5, Momentum 4 and Kutya Párt had 3 percent. In terms of mandates, Fidesz-KNP can send 11 representatives, TISA 7, K-MSZP-Barbieszd 2, and Mi Hažanek 1 representative to the European Parliament.

IDEA also posted on Wednesday measurement Fidesz received 44 percent, TESA 26 percent, the coalition of opposition parties 12 percent, and May Hazanek 5 percent.

In summary: The latest research published this week gives Fidesz and the KDP 43-50 percent (11 seats), Tiza 25-27 percent (6 or 7 seats), and the SPD-PSP and Barbiszied 9-15. Percent (2 or 3 seats). It was measured among some voters.

Along with them, May Hazank, Kutia Part and Momentum still have a realistic chance of reaching the 5 percent threshold. According to all polls, Mi Hazánk will have one representative, the poll predicts a seat for the Dog Party, but Momentum will be excluded from the European Parliament according to all polls.

Of course, let us add that nothing is constant, the uncertainty factor seems important:

According to Andre Hahn, 25% (!) of confirmed voters could not or did not want to decide which party list to vote for. The other question is which party is most likely to win the votes of undecided voters at the last minute.

What will happen at the European Union level? Why is choice important?

Regarding international developments, preliminary polls indicate that the forces on the center-right may advance at the European Union level, from conservative national parties to the extreme right. (We've written about the process of it all here, and the whys here.)

Center parties may weaken, but at the same time they may still enjoy a majority in the European Parliament.

Latest report from Politico according to Among the centrist forces, the People's Party faction may have 173 seats, the Social Democrats faction 143 seats, and the Liberal Renewal Party 75 seats.

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On the radical right, the European conservatives and reformists can count on 76 representatives, and the Identity and Democracy Party on 67 representatives – that is, if they joined forces, they would constitute the second-third largest faction. The far-left faction could get 32 ​​seats, while the Green Party could get 41 seats.

Why is the European Parliament important? Although its powers are still smaller than those of the European Commission, referred to as the EU government, and the European Council, which brings together the leaders of member states, Its powers have expanded significantly in recent decades.

The European Parliament approves the EU budget, controls the spending of funds, elects the President of the European Commission, appoints commissioners and holds them to account – meaning it does not matter how much weight the faction wields.

In addition, the elections clearly carry a strong domestic political message.

This is especially true in contemporary Hungary, where many things have happened in recent months – from the fallout from the amnesty issue to the collapse of the TISA party – that previously seemed unimaginable.

We report news developments during the day and in articles from 7pm minute by minute.

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