The organization, which employs volunteer firefighters, conducted research with researchers at Monash University and US institutions that projected an increase in both the average fire risk and the number of highly flammable days across the state, the Guardian reported.
A study published in the International Journal of Wildfire used 12 models to predict fire hazards in Victoria by the end of the century. Take into account medium to large greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
There will be a more flammable day
The projections are for future decreases in precipitation and relative humidity, particularly in spring and early summer, said Sarah Harris, head of research and development at the Fire Department of Victoria (CFA) and co-author of the study. We can expect a longer heavy season and more flammable days in general, he said.
Photo: Fairfax Media/Getty Images Hungary
The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its sixth comprehensive report in early August, noting that Australia’s bushfire season has been extended since 1950. Based on the CFA model, the worst-case scenario is that if greenhouse gas emissions continue Thermal rise this century, flammability index scores will rise between 10 and 20 per cent in Victoria, with the largest change expected in the northwest part of the state.
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If a high emissions scenario materializes, the researchers predict that the number of particularly flammable days could increase by up to 200 percent in five regions in Victoria. In Burnsdale, in the southeastern part of the state, the number of high- or high-risk flammable days is expected to triple to 2,100 and rise to eight per year. And in Walboe, northwest of Victoria, that number is expected to rise from 60 to 100 per year.
Forests are in danger
Harris said they will analyze the effects of climate change to respond appropriately to the increase in the number of days in highly scorching weather. In another study conducted by researchers at the Australian National University, attention was drawn to the increased risk of severe fires in logging near rural settlements. The authors of the research published in the journal Ecosphere, which looks at the intensity of fires in southeastern Australia, emphasized the need to consider preserving ancient forests near settlements.
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(Image source: Getty Images Hungary)