According to the IPCC worst-case scenario, global warming will reach 4.4°C

According to the IPCC worst-case scenario, global warming will reach 4.4°C

In a summary of the State of Climatology, agreed by 195 countries on August 6 and published on August 8, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that Earth is expected to reach a critical 1.5°C warming threshold within the next 20 years due to climate change, regardless For global governments working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Actions are urgently needed to avoid climate catastrophe, and this requires cooperation.

Why is it necessary and vital to keep global warming below 1.5°C versus higher levels? Adjustment will be less difficult. Our world will suffer less from the effects of climate change on the intensity and frequency of events, resources, ecosystems, biodiversity, food security, cities, tourism and carbon sequestration.

Important authors from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have assessed new scientific evidence for changes in the climate system and the effects of climate change on natural and human systems. The global climate has changed since before industrialization and there is a wealth of evidence supporting the impact of these changes on living organisms and ecosystems as well as human health and well-being.

The intensity and frequency of climatic and weather extremes are observed during the period in which it was approx. Global warming occurred 0.5°C.
This survey is based on a number of evidence, including a study of parties from the 1950s.

Greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced to zero.Source: WWF

Even at best, that is, if humanity stops releasing harmful substances immediately and if we want to remove harmful substances from the atmosphere, this is a somewhat fanciful scenario, but until then it will be. Human activity, pollution and unsustainable lifestyles have irreversible consequences. Global warming cannot be reversed, it can only slow down processes.

In a worst-case scenario, the Earth could warm by 4.4 degrees Celsius until 2100 if emissions are too high.

“Our actions and choices will determine where we act in the decades and centuries to come,” says Joeri Rugeli, a scientist at Imperial College London and author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Today, humanity emits about 40 trillion tons of carbon dioxide annually. According to the scenario, this should be reduced to about 5 trillion, the medium scenario, emissions are similar today by mid-century, and in the very bad scenario, emissions will be twice the current level by 2050.

Climate change is also causing more and more severe droughtsSource: Shutterstock

Rugeli says that given that not all governments are committed to translating climate action into policy, it is currently possible

We are in a medium emissions worst case scenario.

It is estimated that this leads to a warming of temperatures of 2.7 and 3.6 degrees Celsius.

At the Glasgow Climate Summit in November this year, which was attended by nearly 200 countries, the main task will be to keep changes on track for a very low emissions scenario, the only scenario in which warming falls below 1.5°C at a time later in contract.

Piers Forster, co-author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from the University of Leeds in the UK, says the report strongly shows that net zero emissions can stabilize temperatures. “The good news is that we can be very confident that short-term reductions in emissions will in fact be able to reduce the unprecedented rate of warming,” Forster says.

In 2018, approx. 12 million hectares of forest have been cleared, which means an area of ​​30 football fields per minute in the tropics.Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48037913

The report provides greater certainty about many of the statements made in 2013, mainly due to the fact that the evidence has been determined by a combination of models and observations on the one hand, and a better understanding of physical processes on the other.

The IPCC report is of great importance because 195 countries claim to have signed the text line by line. This report will be followed by two more reports next year on the impacts and solutions of climate change.

(Forras: A New Scientist, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)

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