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A surprising study has arrived: Is Russia’s economy in much better shape than we thought?

A surprising study has arrived: Is Russia’s economy in much better shape than we thought?

The International Credit Rating Agency announced: Previous March Global Outlook It increased from 2 percent to 2.4 percent Estimate the expansion of global GDP this year. Fitch confirmed that it is within the global average of A emerging economies It raised its expectations for its performance to the maximum, as the activity data received so far for this area is much stronger than expected.

The company expects GDP growth to average 2.9 percent in this group of countries – excluding China – instead of the 2 percent in its previous forecast. The rating agency confirms that within the emerging region, Russia, India, Brazil and Mexico are all showing significant economic improvement.

Analysts at Fitch Ratings in London improved their forecast for Chinese economic growth this year from 5.2% to 5.6%, given that A faster-than-expected recovery began in China Since the lifting of strict restrictions due to the coronavirus pandemic. the American Fitch raised its forecast for economic growth this year from 1 percent to 1.2 percent consumption and job creation The momentum is still strong.

At the same time, the company still expects monetary policy to be tightened by the Federal Reserve, which plays the role of the US central bank.

The US economy was pushed into a mild recession in the last quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024.

With that in mind, Fitch Ratings lowered its forecast for US GDP growth next year from the 0.8 percent it had projected so far to 0.5 percent.

The global rating provided by Fitch Ratings on Thursday confirms that it is Russian economy Its performance was much stronger than the company had previously predicted: in the first quarter of this year, the value of Russia’s GDP fell by 1.8 percent. rather than the potential 5.1 percent decline in Fitch’s previous forecast. According to the credit rating agency, the momentum continued in the second quarter as well: this is confirmed by the fact that the activity of the manufacturing and service sectors of the Russian economy Purchasing Manager Indexes Both are in the range that indicates recovery, and even exceed levels measured before the invasion of Ukraine. Russians Indicators of consumer and business confidence Also getting better, and Deposit of real estate and non-real estate loans – Fitch forecast says.

Taking all this into account, Fitch analysts expect the value of Russia’s GDP to increase by 0.4 percent this year instead of the 1.4 percent decline projected in the company’s previous forecast.

Fitch Ratings expects the Russian economy to grow by 1.4% by 2024 and 1.5% by 2025.

At the same time, the credit rating agency confirms its view that international sanctions and major structural changes will hamper the potential growth of the Russian economy in the medium term, while domestic companies will have to rebuild supplier networks and international trade relations.

In the eurozone, Fitch Ratings expects economic growth of 0.8 percent this year, 1.4 percent next year, and 1.7 percent in 2025. The credit rating agency has not revised these forecasts.

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